The Impact of the EU-US FTA on Trade of the New Member States
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When the European Union countries (EU28) are viewed as the compositionbetween the old member countries (EU15) and the new member states (NMS13),the existing patterns of trade among the EU15, the NMS13, and the US maycreate both an increase in trade opportunity between the NMS13 and the USand a higher displacement effect on exports from the NMS13 to the EU15 destinationdue to the EU-US FTA agreement. This research examines potential impacts byemploying both qualitative and quantitative analyses. The increase in tradeopportunity is scrutinized by calculating the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)index. The potential displacement effect on exports of the NMS13 is examinedby employing the gravity model. According to the empirical results, the displacementeffects are detected in 13 out of 26 major industries of the NMS13. The researchfindings indicate that from the point of view of the NMS13, the EU-US FTAagreement may cause the US to act as a trade partner and as an export competitorsimultaneously. The policy implications can be drawn for the NMS13 that the NMS13needs to increase the level of competitiveness of its industries to compete withthe US products in the EU15 market in 13 industries.
Abstract
When the European Union countries (EU28) are viewed as the compositionbetween the old member countries (EU15) and the new member states (NMS13),the existing patterns of trade among the EU15, the NMS13, and the US maycreate both an increase in trade opportunity between the NMS13 and the USand a higher displacement effect on exports from the NMS13 to the EU15 destinationdue to the EU-US FTA agreement. This research examines potential impacts byemploying both qualitative and quantitative analyses. The increase in tradeopportunity is scrutinized by calculating the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)index. The potential displacement effect on exports of the NMS13 is examinedby employing the gravity model. According to the empirical results, the displacementeffects are detected in 13 out of 26 major industries of the NMS13. The researchfindings indicate that from the point of view of the NMS13, the EU-US FTAagreement may cause the US to act as a trade partner and as an export competitorsimultaneously. The policy implications can be drawn for the NMS13 that the NMS13needs to increase the level of competitiveness of its industries to compete withthe US products in the EU15 market in 13 industries.
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