The Role of the US on ASEAN Exports to the European Union
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The European Union (EU) is the major export destination for ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) countries while the United States of America (the US) is the largest trade partner of the EU. The export structures from ASEAN to the EU is similar to the export structures from the US to the same destination. This research aims at examining the effects from exports of the US on exports of ASEAN to the EU market. We examine impacts by employing both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The displacement effect on exports of ASEAN is examined by estimating the gravity model. The degree of export threat is also investigated by calculating the rivalry threat index (RTI). According to the empirical results, the displacement effects are detected in 21 out of 26 major industries of ASEAN. The displacement effect is detected notably in machinery and transport equipment (SITC7) and miscellaneous manufactured articles (SITC8). The findings from calculation of degree of export threat support the results of regression estimation. Our empirical analysis provides the significant policy implications to the ASEAN countries that ASEAN may encounter with the fiercer threat on their exports against the US to the EU market after the EU-US FTA agreement comes into force in the near future. The ASEAN needs to increase the level of competitiveness of its industries to compete with the US products in the EU market, especially in 21 industries which the displacement effects are found.
Abstract
The European Union (EU) is the major export destination for ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) countries while the United States of America (the US) is the largest trade partner of the EU. The export structures from ASEAN to the EU is similar to the export structures from the US to the same destination. This research aims at examining the effects from exports of the US on exports of ASEAN to the EU market. We examine impacts by employing both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The displacement effect on exports of ASEAN is examined by estimating the gravity model. The degree of export threat is also investigated by calculating the rivalry threat index (RTI). According to the empirical results, the displacement effects are detected in 21 out of 26 major industries of ASEAN. The displacement effect is detected notably in machinery and transport equipment (SITC7) and miscellaneous manufactured articles (SITC8). The findings from calculation of degree of export threat support the results of regression estimation. Our empirical analysis provides the significant policy implications to the ASEAN countries that ASEAN may encounter with the fiercer threat on their exports against the US to the EU market after the EU-US FTA agreement comes into force in the near future. The ASEAN needs to increase the level of competitiveness of its industries to compete with the US products in the EU market, especially in 21 industries which the displacement effects are found.
참고문헌 (15)
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