중간계급 비교연구 1979-2010
What are the determinants of the size of the middle class?
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중산층은 여러 가지로 중요하다. 경제적으로는 소비능력이 있는 집단으로서 경제적 균형에 기여하는 한편, 정치적으로는 극단적 정치를 배제하는 완충역할을 한다. 사회적으로는 저소득집단에 대해서 역할모델의 역할을 하는 동시에, 상층계급과는 별도의 집단적 정체성을 유지하여 사회적 균형을 유지한다. 중산층의 감소는 사회적 균형의 와해를 의미한다는 점에서 충분한 분석을 요구한다. 특히 최근 불황이 장기화되면서 중산층에 대한 관심이 늘고 있다. 중간층은 사회적 갈등의 완충지대이다. 마르크스가 말한 것과는 달리 계급투쟁은 노동계급과 부유층 간의 극한 대립으로 발전하지 않았다. 중간층은 어느 나라에서도 소멸하지 않았고 오히려 그들은 사회에 따라서 중추 역할을 함으로써 사회적 안정에 기여하기도 했다. 그러나 이러한 양상은 나라별로 편차가 크며 따라서 그와 같은 차이를 설명하는 것이 본 글의 목적이다. 지난 10년 동안 중산층의 위축이나 소멸을 우려하는 목소리가 커졌다. 세계화와 탈산업화가 가중하면서 중산층이 설 자리를 잃었으며 양극화로 인해 정치적 불안정이 증폭된다는 점이 우려된다. 이 글은 두 가지 목적을 추구한다. 첫째 목표는 중간층이 정말로 사라지는 경향을 보이는가의 여부를 40개국의 경험자료를 통해 관찰하는 것이다. 둘째 목표는 무엇이 중산층 규모의 국가 간 및 역사적 변화를 설명하는가의 질문에 답하는 것이다. 우리는 여기서 중간층 규모문제를 사회경제적 갈등과 관련하여 두 가지 이론을 통해 검증하고자 한다. 권력자원이론에 따르면 중산층 규모는 노동계급이 자신의 몫을 늘리려는 시도의 결과이다. 또 패널분석은 노동자의 조직화와 좌파정당의 집권이 재분배정책을 통해 중간계급을 확대시키는데 기여한다는 점을 보여준다. 즉 노동계급의 자원이 강력하면 중산층으로 성장할 수 있다는 가설이다. 한편 제도이론은 사회적 요구는 정치제도를 통해 실현된다는 가정 위에서 중산층 규모는 어떤 정치제도가 지배적인가에 달려 있다고 지적한다. 그러나 이러한 가설과는 달리 필자들의 경험분석에 따르면 정치제도는 중간계급의 편차를 설명하는데 중요성을 발휘하지 않는 것을 나타났다.
Abstract
This paper aims to provide an empirical analysis of cross-country variation in the size of the middle class among countries. The middle class is defined as a group whose income ranges from 70 to 150 percentage of the median income. The middle class is the bedrock of democracy as well as the backbone of market activities. The middle class plays an important role in politics, economics, and society. The middle class provides much of the labor force for the economy and is a key market for the national product. It pays a large portion of tax revenue. Two theories are tested to confirm whether power resources of the working class or political institutions are more critical in shaping the middle class. Politically, the middle class contributes to maintaining political stability. Socially, it moderates polarization made up of rich and poor. Our analysis seeks the determinants of the size of the middle class. Two findings are suggested. First, power resources of the working class are important in shaping the size of the middle class. Pressures from the middle class make public policy redistributive favoring income groups below the median, and therefore, enlarge the middle class. Second, political institutions are found to be statistically insignificant as variables influencing the size of the middle class. This result is contrary to what a large literature has demonstrated the importance of political institutions. New tasks ahead remain to explain institutional impact using different techniques.
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