Backster ZCT를 사용한 폴리그라프 검사절차의 일반화가능도: 관련 질문의 개수, 반복측정 횟수, 채점자의 수에 따른 신뢰도의 변화
Generalizability of Polygraph Test Procedures using Backster ZCT: Changes in reliability as a function of the number of relevant questions, the number of repeated tests, and the number of raters
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초록
본 연구에서는 일반화가능도 이론을 이용하여 폴리그라프 검사에 사용된 관련 질문의 개수와 반복측정 횟수 (차트의 수), 채점자 수가 폴리그라프 검사의 신뢰도에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 검찰청에서 형사피의자를 대상으로 Backster ZCT를 사용한 폴리그라프 검사자료 중 31명의 폴리그라프 검사자료를 표본추출하였으며, 31명의 검사자료를 13명의 채점자가 수치적 채점방법을 이용하여 채점한 점수에 대하여 일반화가능도 이론을 적용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 피검사자의 변량성분이 43.97%로 가장 컸으며, 다음으로 잔여오차변량성분이 16.84%, 피검사자와 반복측정 횟수의 상호작용오차변량성분이 12.17%, 피검사자와 반복측정 횟수, 관련 질문 개수의 삼원상호작용오차변량성분이 10.31%였으며, 나머지 변량성분은 모두 7% 미만이었다. 관련 질문의 개수와 반복측정 횟수, 채점자의 수에 따른 일반화가능도 계수를 산출한 결과, 바람직한 일반화가능도 계수인 0.80 이상을 보이는 조건은 관련 질문 2개 이상과 반복측정 3회 이상, 채점자 2명 이상의 조합인 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
Generalizablity theory was employed to examine how the reliability of polygraph test is affected by the number of relevant questions, the number of repeated tests (the number of of charts), and the number of raters (scorers). The data consisted of the results of the polygraph tests administered to 31 crime suspects. The sample was drawn from the real polygraph tests based on Backster ZCT and archived by the Prosecutor's Office of the Republic of Korea. The numerical scores assigned by thirteen raters to the test charts were analyzed to determine the generalizablity of the scores. The largest variance component was accounted for by the examinee factor (43.97%) and the residual variance component was 16.84% of the total variance. The variance component due to the interaction between the examinee and the chart factors was 12.17% and the variance component due to the three way interaction of the examinee, the repeated test, and the relevant question factors was 10.31%. The generalizability coefficient for the current measurement procedure as practiced by the Korean Prosecutor's Office was 0.74 which suggests that the current procedure is acceptable. However, measurement procedures with the combination of more than two relevant questions, more than three repeated tests, and more than two raters were generally found to yield generalizability coefficients larger than 0.80. Therefore, such procedures need to be considered seriously in order to significantly improve the reliability of polygraph test.
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