한국 주요품목의 수출함수 추정

Abstract

Korea became the world's 11th largest trader with a trade volume of 728 billion dollars in 2007. Exports showed achieved a two-digit growth rate for the fifth consecutive years. Korea has changed from the position of $1 billion during the entire year in 1971 to that of $1 billion per day in 2007. Despite the growth in volume, some structural problems are also found. Conditions for Korea's trade surplus have also grown unstable with the surplus having decreased every year since 2004. Korea's trade surplus in 2007 was only $14.6 billion, almost half of the 2004 level of $29.4 billion. In 2007, Korea's top 10 export products accounted for 61 % of the total exports, as compared to 55% in 2003. Furthermore, the trade balance of trade in 2008 have been worsened with the soaring international prices of oil and other major raw materials. The purpose of this paper, hence, is to the characteristics of export demand to changes in industrial production and exchange rates using econometric methods. I applied the EG test to examine the cointegration of variables. The optimal lag length of the ADF test was chosen by SIC. The statistics failed to reject the null of “no cointegration” for all cases. The result also suggested that there was considerable variation in the adjustment speed to the last period's disequilibrium, with semiconductor having the largest and passenger car, the smallest. The regression analysis found that all the export models have satisfactory and high R² statistics and the exchange rate elasticities are negative and statistically significant. Especially, the exchange rate elasticity for semiconductor is substantially larger than other export product and the income coefficients are significant and positive. This paper applies variance decompositions to the model, indicating that export volumes are endogenous to the economic variables such as exchange rate and business activities. Taking an example, errors in forecasting the export volume of informations and communication's equipments at a forecast horizon of 12 months are 31 percent and 20 percent attributable to innovations in business and exchange rate. The exchange rate has greater impact on the exports of the semiconductors than any other product. The automobile has not been so much affected by the exchange rate and has not been so endogenous compared to the other products.