학령인구 감소가 대학 재정에 미치는 영향 : 경영성과 판단을 위한 재무지표와 모형을 중심으로

Abstract

As many universities may experience financial difficulties due to a decrease in the number of students due to a decrease in the school-age population. Therefore, the Ministry of Education suggested a plan to intensively manage risky universities by diagnosing university finances with financial indicators. In this study, financial indicators were developed to evaluate the business performance of private universities and the effect on university finances when the new student enrollment rate increases was analyzed. To achieve this research purpose, financial statements of four-year universities published from 2017 to 2019 were obtained, and business performance was analyzed. Business performance was evaluated as operating profit(or loss) calculated by deducting operating expenses from operating income in the financial statement. The research results are as follows. First, as the period passed, the number of universities reporting operating losses increased, and the ratio of local universities reporting operating losses was high. Second, it may be difficult to operate normally if non-enrollment rates increases at a university where there are not enough voluntary reserves and unused carry-over funds. Third, if the number of students decreases, it is expected that the number of universities that cannot sufficiently pay their faculty and staff with tuition income or cannot pay for university operating expenses through transfers and donations is expected to increase. Fourth, if expenses are managed in a way that reduces professor and research expenses and laboratory and practice expenses when tuition income decreases, the research capacity of the university may decrease and the quality of education may decrease. Fifth, using the estimated operating profit and loss models developed in this study, the possibility of reporting an operating loss due to an increase in the non-enrollment rate for new students was simulated. At the 15% level of non-enrollment, universities in Seoul area and local universities are predicted to report operating losses of 62% and 75%, respectively. In this study, various indicators were presented for judging a university in business crisis, and a model was developed to estimate the future operating profit and loss according to the fresh student non-enrollment rate. These indicators and models can be usefully used when judging universities in business crisis.