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관광서비스산업의 장기수요함수 추정에 관한 실증연구

Empirical analysis on the estimation for the long-run demand function in the Korean tourism service industry

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초록

This paper is to set up the error correction model in order to estimate the price elasticity, income elasticity and exchange rate elasticity for the long-run demand function in the tourism service industries including retail·food ·lodging and transport·communication. The price elasticity of demand are estimated to be –2.254 and –1.435 respectively in retail·food·lodging and transport·communication. The income elasticity of demand are estimated to be 0.907 and 0.606 respectively in both industries respectively. The exchange rate elasticity were also estimated to be 0.495 in retail·food·lodging and 0.534 in transport·communication. Thus the empirical result suggests that Producer Price Index, real GDP, and exchange rate have been major determinants for the long-run demand function in the tourism service industries during the period of 1975:1-2016:4. All data come from Economic Statistical System(ECOS) of the Bank of Korea and Korean Statistical Information Service (KSIS) of the bureau of Statistics.

Abstract

This paper is to set up the error correction model in order to estimate the price elasticity, income elasticity and exchange rate elasticity for the long-run demand function in the tourism service industries including retail·food ·lodging and transport·communication. The price elasticity of demand are estimated to be –2.254 and –1.435 respectively in retail·food·lodging and transport·communication. The income elasticity of demand are estimated to be 0.907 and 0.606 respectively in both industries respectively. The exchange rate elasticity were also estimated to be 0.495 in retail·food·lodging and 0.534 in transport·communication. Thus the empirical result suggests that Producer Price Index, real GDP, and exchange rate have been major determinants for the long-run demand function in the tourism service industries during the period of 1975:1-2016:4. All data come from Economic Statistical System(ECOS) of the Bank of Korea and Korean Statistical Information Service (KSIS) of the bureau of Statistics.

참고문헌 (11)

  1. 강주훈, "관광서비스 산업의 서비스수출성과 결정요인에 관한 실증연구", 관광경영연구, 20(4), pp.1~15 (2016), 관광경영학회
  2. 정석중, "생산요소가격변화가 관광서비스 산업의 마크업에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증분석", 관광경영연구, 19(3), pp.1~16 (2015), 관광경영학회
  3. 정석중, "한국 관광서비스산업의 솔로우잔차항과 실질임금의 경기순환성에 실증분석: 1975-2010", 관광경영연구, 16(1), pp.173~195 (2012), 관광경영학회
  4. 정전옥, "한국 관광수지의 결정요인에 관한 실증분석", 관광경영연구, 20(5), pp.309~323 (2016), 관광경영학회
  5. 주연화, "강원도와 제주도 관광서비스산업의 생산성 비교 실증분석", 관광경영연구, 17(3), pp.407~425 (2013), 관광경영학회
  6. Engle, R. F., "Cointegration and Error-Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing", Econometrica, 55, pp.251~276 (1987)
  7. Goldfeld, S., "Handbook of Monetary Economics. Volume I" (1990), North-Holland
  8. Johansen, S, "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated Vectors", Journal of Economic Dyamics and Control, 12, pp.231~254 (1988)
  9. Johansen, S., "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money", Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, 52, pp.169~210 (1990)
  10. 주연화, "The Industry-Specific Determinants for Export Performance in Korean Manufacturing Industries: Fixed Effect vs. Random Effect Model", 국제지역연구, 19(2), pp.47~64 (2015), 국제지역학회
  11. 주연화, "Empirical Analysis of the Industrial Markup Determinants in the Transportation & Telecommunication Service Sector", 국제지역연구, 20(1), pp.167~181 (2016), 국제지역학회

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