제주 관광 수요에 대한 장기 소득 및 가격 탄력성 도출: 공적분 방법론을 이용하여
Deriving long-run income and price elasticities for Jeju’s tourism demand: A cointegration approach
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This study examines the long-run income and price elasticities of tourism demand for Jeju Island, where tourism plays a vital economic role. Using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2023, cointegration methods, including the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests, were applied to estimate stable relationships between macroeconomic variables such as income, prices, interest rates, and exchange rates, and tourism demand. The results indicate that domestic tourism demand has an income elasticity of 2.4, classifying it as a luxury good. Price elasticity exceeds one in absolute terms, indicating high sensitivity to relative price changes. A 1% rise in interest rates reduces demand by 0.03%, reflecting the effects of opportunity cost. For Chinese tourists, income elasticity is approximately 2%, while relative price elasticity ranges from -1.456 to -1.481, suggesting a stronger sensitivity to income growth than to price changes. This study extends prior research by incorporating underexplored variables such as interest rates and offers insights for policy and investment decisions in tourism.
Abstract
This study examines the long-run income and price elasticities of tourism demand for Jeju Island, where tourism plays a vital economic role. Using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2023, cointegration methods, including the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests, were applied to estimate stable relationships between macroeconomic variables such as income, prices, interest rates, and exchange rates, and tourism demand. The results indicate that domestic tourism demand has an income elasticity of 2.4, classifying it as a luxury good. Price elasticity exceeds one in absolute terms, indicating high sensitivity to relative price changes. A 1% rise in interest rates reduces demand by 0.03%, reflecting the effects of opportunity cost. For Chinese tourists, income elasticity is approximately 2%, while relative price elasticity ranges from -1.456 to -1.481, suggesting a stronger sensitivity to income growth than to price changes. This study extends prior research by incorporating underexplored variables such as interest rates and offers insights for policy and investment decisions in tourism.