EU Vs EEU: 새로운 지역구도 경쟁 혹은 협력
EU Vs EEU: Competition or Cooperation for a new regional structure
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본 논문은 러시아가 주도하여 창설된 EEU의 영향력을 고찰해 봄으로써 EU와 어떠한 형태의 지역구도를 형성해 나갈지를 분석하는 데 목적이 있다. EEU 자체적으로는 국제무대에서 EU, NAFTA, ASEAN 등과 견줄 만한 새로운 지역공동체로 인정받기 위해서는 회원국의 확대 및 통합의 심화가 절실하다. 그럼에도 불구하고 EEU 확대에 가장 핵심적인 우크라이나뿐만 아니라, 잠재적 후보국으로 분류되는 국가들의 경우 EEU에 회원국으로 가입할 가능성은 높지 않다. 그러나 푸틴 대통령의 제3기 집권 이후 EEU 프로젝트가 가장 중요한 대외 정책 의제라는 점을 고려하면, EEU는 실존하는 지역공동체로서 일정 부분 그 역할을 수행해 나가려 할 것이다. 러시아가 전통적으로 정치 및 경제적 측면에서, 나아가 EU의 에너지 안보에 있어 EU 대외 정책의 핵심적 국가임을 고려할 때, EU의 대 EEU 대응 정책은 기존의 대 러시아 정책과 큰 차이를 보이지 않을 것이다. 물론 EEU 창설로 ‘공통의 이웃국가(shared neighbourhood)’들과의 관계 형성을 두고 EU와 경쟁관계 구도가 성립될 요소도 있다. 이러한 점에서 EU와 EEU의 지역구도는 경쟁과 협력이 공존하는 양상으로 전개될 것으로 보인다. 그러나 EU와 러시아가 전략적으로 상호 중요성을 다분히 인정하고 있다는 측면에서 경쟁의 요소보다는 협력의 방향으로 EU와 EEU 간 지역구도가 전개될 가능성이 더 높다. 이러한 논의는 한국의 한-러 FTA 추진 및 ‘유라시아 이니셔티브’ 정책 구상에도 시사하는 바가 크다. 러시아가 주도하는 EEU의 설립은 한국 정부의 FTA 구상 및 ‘유라시아 이니셔티브’ 정책 수립에 러시아가 아닌 EEU가 대외 정책 수립의 대상이 되었다는 점이다.
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to analyse the possible change of regional structure based on the implications of the newly established Eurasian Economic Union(EEU) led by Russia. It is necessary for the EEU to enlarge its member states as well as to deepen its integration in order to be internationally recognised as a new regional community similar to the EU, NAFTA and ASEAN. Nevertheless, the possibility that potential candidate countries including Ukraine as perceived the most essential country for the EEU could join in the near futrue does not seem to be high. Having considered that the EEU project has been the most important foreign policy agenda since Putin’s 3rd Presidential terms, however, the EEU continues to play and extend its role as an existing regional community. Russia has been one of key countries for the EU’s external relations in terms of economic and political relations as well as the EU’s energy security. In this sense, the EU’s external policy to the EEU is unlikely to be different from the EU’s policy to Russia. There is, of course, a factor which could cause regional rivalry situation between the EU and the EEU, in that shared neighbourhood in Central Asia and CIS categorised as potential candidates to either the EU or the EEU. From these perspectives, the regional structure after the establishment of the EEU is likely to show the coexistence of ‘regional cooperation’ and ‘regional rivalry’. However, both the EU and the EEU could give priority to ‘regional cooperation’ rather than rival structure, in that both realise strategic importance of each other. This paper can also provide implications for the Korean government’s policy initiatives on the promotion of the Korea-Russia FTA and ‘Eurasian Initiative’ project. That is, the EEU instead of Russia becomes an objective or a negotiating partner to be considered when Korea sets up its external policy.
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