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China’s Cautious Approach to the Venezuelan Crisis: Strategic Overdraft and Nonintervention Principle

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국제지역연구원 (Institute of Global Affairs)|2021.12|아태연구 (Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies)|제28권 제4호|pp. 39-81|DOI 10.18107/japs.2021.28.4.002

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ChinaSouth-South CooperationVenezuelaNonintervention PrincipleStrategic Overdraft
주제분류사회과학일반

초록

The current China–Venezuela relationship adheres to the South-South cooperation (SSC) model wherein the two countries have established an integrated cooperative approach with “loan-for-oil” deals at its core; however, in contrast with its recent softening stance on interventions, China has taken a cautious approach to the crisis in Venezuela since 2014. Nevertheless, not many studies highlight the reasons for China’s cautiousness. This paper tries to mitigate the gap by examining China’s strategic overdraft as exposed by this response and exploring the challenges in SSC model. It is herein argued that dual overdrafts of material power and credibility constitute the reason for China’s nonintervention in Venezuela. Meanwhile, as the country hoped to continue its presence in Venezuela and is concerned over the overdraft credibility risk by withdrawing, it chose adopt hedging as a form of flexible involvement. To avoid a similar situation in the future, China should neither rely on economic complementarity nor rigidly stick to nonintervention. With national economic and political interests and cooperative sustainability as a guide, China should clarify and redefine its nonintervention principle and adopt preventive measures for risk assessment and cooperation practices to innovate a more sustainable SSC model.

Abstract

The current China–Venezuela relationship adheres to the South-South cooperation (SSC) model wherein the two countries have established an integrated cooperative approach with “loan-for-oil” deals at its core; however, in contrast with its recent softening stance on interventions, China has taken a cautious approach to the crisis in Venezuela since 2014. Nevertheless, not many studies highlight the reasons for China’s cautiousness. This paper tries to mitigate the gap by examining China’s strategic overdraft as exposed by this response and exploring the challenges in SSC model. It is herein argued that dual overdrafts of material power and credibility constitute the reason for China’s nonintervention in Venezuela. Meanwhile, as the country hoped to continue its presence in Venezuela and is concerned over the overdraft credibility risk by withdrawing, it chose adopt hedging as a form of flexible involvement. To avoid a similar situation in the future, China should neither rely on economic complementarity nor rigidly stick to nonintervention. With national economic and political interests and cooperative sustainability as a guide, China should clarify and redefine its nonintervention principle and adopt preventive measures for risk assessment and cooperation practices to innovate a more sustainable SSC model.

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