주택시장구조 변화에 대한 실증 분석

Abstract

Korea is known to have the market structure changes around the time of the construction of 2 million houses and IMF foreign exchange crisis. This paper tries to verify the existence of structure changes and the change time points. First we carried the estimation of housing price equation which is believed to represent the market structure. The housing price equation fully contains the information of housing market even in the reduced form. We used the housing price as dependant variable and the Chonsei price, the GDP, the interest rate of corporate bond, the mortgage loans and the approved residential construction area as independent variables. The estimation shows the proper fitness with a good result of autocorrelation. Given with the estimated housing price equation we carried the statistical test for the structural changes of housing market. We used the three tests (Chow Test, Chow's Forecast Test, N-Step Forecast Test) and the results of all three tests indicate that the housing market experienced the market changes in 1991 and 1999(or 2000, 2001). These results are fully matched to the presumptions on the market structural changes. Also These findings imply that the policy makers must consider the market changes before they manipulate the market variables. Since there are market changes even the same policy tools could give the different results. It should give more uncertainty to the market instead of the stability. The statistical resutls show that there were market changes after IMF foreign crisis which means that the policy makers should select different set of policy tools different from those applied in the IMF foreign crisis. The proper and precise analysis of market movement must be done before the housing policy is adopted.