주택시장에서 기초경제여건의 영향력에 관한 연구 : 구조변화를 고려하며
The Effects of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Housing Market: Considering Structural Breaks
0
조회
0
다운로드
19
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between housing price and the other economic variables in consideration of structural breaks during 1986-2004. To this end, data analysis was conducted through the methods such as Zivot and Andrews'(1992) unit root test and Gregory and Hansen's(1996a, b) cointegration test. We found the following empirical results. The relationship between housing price and interest rate has changed from positive to negative after structural break. In addition, the effect of economic growth on the housing price increased. This suggests that the market fundamentals play more important roles on determining of housing price in the long run. Further this finding gives some policy implications for the housing market. That is, the long-term housing policy to stabilize housing markets should be considered in accordance with the macroeconomic policy (including interest rate) as well as tax policy.
참고문헌 (25)
- "지가변동요인 분석: IMF 체제와 지가변동을 중심으로" (1997), 감정평가연구원
- "주택가격 예측을 위한 모형설정과 검정", (3월), pp.54~61 (1998), 국토연구원
- "한국경제의 계량경제모형: 단계경제예측시스템" (2000), 한국은행
- 김영표, "지가동향 예고지표 개발에 관한 기초연구 국토개발원" (1989)
- "토지시장의 구조변화 및 전망 연구" (2000), 국토연구원
- "부동산 가격 행태 변화의 실증적 분석", 8(1), pp.5~24 (1999)
- "부동산가격 예측모형에 관한 연구", 11(1), pp.49~75 (2003)
- "주택시장의 경기동향 및 단기전망 연구" (2000), 국토연구원
- "초단기 경제예측모형에 대한 연구" (1999), 산업은행
- "금융위기와 토지시장", 9 (1998), 한국토지공사
- "거시경제정책이 토지시장에 미치는 영향분석" (1997), 국토연구원
- "지가동향 예고지표 개발을 위한 기초연구 국토개발연구원" (1991)
- "Fitting autoregressive models for Prediction", 21, pp.243~247 (1969)
- "On the Relationship between Money and Inflation in the United States: Additional Evidence", 3, pp.549~552 (1996)
- "Innovational outlier unit root tests with an endogenously determined break in level", 63(5), pp.559~575 (2001)
- "Autoregressive modeling and money income causality detection", pp.85~106 (1981)
- "Some recent developments in a concept of causality Journal of Econometrics 39" (1988)
- "Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-run Equilibrium Relationships", pp.203~233 (1994)
- "Residual Based Tests for Cointegration in Modles with Regime Shifts", 70(1), pp.99~126 (1996)
- "Practitioners Coner: Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trends Shifts", 56(3), pp.555~560 (1996)
- "Money, Income and Dynamic Lag Pattern", 64, pp.97~103 (1997)
- "The Temporary causality between governments taxes and spending", pp.221~229 (1990)
- "Lag-length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income", pp.164~178 (1985)
- "Further Evidence on the Great Crash Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10", pp.251~280 (1992)
- "Further Evidence on the Great Crash Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10", pp.251~280 (1992)