미 연준의 지준타겟팅 제도 운영경험과 정책적 시사점
Nonborrowed Reserve Targeting : Fed's Experience and Implications for Korean Monetary Policy
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본고는 최근 우리 경제가 처한 상황이 Volcker 연준의장의 재임시절과 유사한 점을고려하여 당시 연준이 사용했던 지준타겟팅 제도가 인플레이션 억제에 주효했던 이유와 한국의 통화정책 운용수단으로서 도입하는 것의 타당성을 검토하였다. Volcker의 정책체계 개혁(monetary policy reform)은 만성적․주기적 인플레이션의 원인이 통화공급의 경기순응성에 있다는 인식 하에 통화량 통제가능성 강화, 연방기금금리(Federal Funds Rate)의 신축성 확보 등을 통해 연준에 대한 민간의 신뢰도를 회복(기대경로 회복)하고 금융긴축의 실효성(금리경로 강화)을 확보한 것으로 평가 가능하다. 또한 통화량 목표 제시 등 정책의 개방성 및 투명성을 제고하고고금리 정책이 초래할 의회, 언론, 시장의 비판을 우회한 점도 커뮤니케이션 전략상효과적이었다고 평가할 수 있다. 그러나 통화와 실물간의 관계가 여전히 불안정하고 통화량에 대한 통제가능성이 낮다는 점, 금융시장의 불안정을 초래할 수 있다는점 등에서 현재의 한국 경제에서도 지준(통화량)타겟팅 제도의 정책적 유효성이 담보될 지는 회의적이며 금리중심 통화정책의 유효성이 여전한 상황에서 기존 체제를포기해야 할 근거도 미약한 것으로 보인다.
Abstract
Considering that the situation in which the Korean economy is currently facing is similar to that of Fed Chairman Volcker during his tenure, this paper examines the reasons why the reserve targeting system adopted by the Fed in 1979 was effective in suppressing inflation and the feasibility of introducing it as a tool for operating monetary policy in Korea. Volcker’s monetary policy reform, recognizing that the cause of chronic and recurrent inflation is the procyclicality of the money supply, reinforced the controllability of the money supply and secured the flexibility of the FFR, thereby restoring the public’s trust in the Fed and securing the effectiveness of monetary tightening. In addition, it can be evaluated as an effective communication strategy in that it improved the openness and transparency of the policy through the announcement of the short term money supply target, and circumvented criticism from the Congress, the media, and the market that the high interest rate policy would lead to. However, given the fact that the relationship between money and real activites is still unstable, the controllability of the money supply is low, and that the monetary targeting system can cause instability in the financial market, it is skeptical whether the effectiveness of the policy will be guaranteed in Korea. Besides, in a situation where interest rate-centered monetary policy is still effective, the grounds for abandoning the existing system also seem weak.
참고문헌 (42)
- 강명헌, "한국 통화정책의 유효성 연구", KIF 금융리포트, (1) (2014), 한국금융연구원
- 국제금융시장 통합이 한국 통화정책과 장기금리에 미치는 영향 및 정책 시사점, "김경훈", 대외경제정책연구원, 1~123 (2017)
- 김기현, "통화정책의 금리전달경로에 대한 유효성 분석", 금융연구, 27(3), pp.127~147 (2013), 한국금융학회
- 김윤겸, "최근 RP시장의 주요 특징 및 잠재리스크 점검", 2022-3차 Flagship seminar 발표자료 (2022), 한국은행 금융시장국 자금시장팀
- 통화량과 경기의 관계 분석, "박경훈", 한국은행, ~, pp.BOK 이슈노트 2018-1호 (2018)
- 성병묵, "국내외 장기금리의 동조화 원인 및 시사점", 조사통계월보, 72(12), pp.16~37 (2018), 한국은행
- 경제주체별 통화수요 및 내생적 통화공급 경로 분석, "손종칠", 한국은행, 경제통계국, ~ (2021)
- 윤재호, "이자율 스프레드의 경기 예측력: 문헌 서베이 및 한국의 사례 분석", 경제분석, 26(3), pp.1~47 (2020), 한국은행
- 외환․국제금융 동향, "한국은행 국제국", ~ (2021)
- 금융안정 상황, "한국은행 금융안정국", ~ (2022)
- 금융안정보고서, "한국은행", ~ (2022)
- Almeida, H., "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash", Journal of Finance, 59(4), pp.1777~1804 (2004)
- Axilrod, S. H., "Federal Reserve System Implementation of Monetary Policy : Analytical Foundations of the New Approach", American Economic Review Papers &Proceedings, 71(2), pp.246~252 (1981)
- Bauer, M. D., "Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve", FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018(07) (2018)
- Belke, A., "Liquidity and the Dynamic Pattern of Asset Price Adjustment : A global view", Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(8), pp.1933~1945 (2010)
- Bernanke, B. S., "Measuring Monetary Policy", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), pp.869~902 (1998)
- Bordo, M. D., "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Growth : Long-run Evidence, 1875-1997", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(1), pp.182~185 (2008)
- Supply Bottlenecks : Where, Why, How Much, and What Next?, "Celasun, O.", IMF, ~, pp.Working Paper, No. 2022 (2022), 031
- Chauvet, M., "Predicting a Recession : Evidence from the Yield Curve in the Presence of Structural Breaks", Economics Letters, 77(2), pp.245~253 (2002)
- Chauvet, M., "Forecasting Recessions using the Yield Curve", Journal of Forecasting, 24(2), pp.77~103 (2005)
- Cogley, T., "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics", NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, 16, pp.331~373 (2001)
- Cogley, T., "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S", Review of Economic Dynamics, pp.262~302 (2005)
- Cook, T., "Determinants of the Federal Funds Rate : 1979-1982", Federal Reserve Bank of Richimond Economic Review, 75, pp.3~19 (1989)
- The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator: A Less Distorted Mirror, "Engstrom, E.", Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, ~, pp.Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2018-055 (2018)
- Estrella, A., "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), pp.45~61 (1998)
- Goodfriend, M., "Interest Rate Policy and the Inflation Scare Problem: 1979-1992", Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, 79(1) (1993)
- Goodfriend, M., "The Monetary Policy Debate Since October 1979 : Lessons for Theory and Practice", Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, (part 2) (2005)
- Goodfriend, M., "The Incredible Volcker Disinflation", Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, pp.981~1015 (2005)
- Jardet, C., "Why Did the Term Structure of Interest Rates Lose its Predictive Power?", Economic Modelling, 21(3), pp.509~524 (2004)
- Johansson, P., "Predicting Recession Probabilities Using the Slope of the Yield Curve", FEDS Notes (2018), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Jordà, Ò., "Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?", FRBSF Economics Letter, 2022(07) (2022)
- Reserve Targeting and Discount Policy, "Kasriel, P. L.", Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Economic Perspective, ~ (1982)
- Lindsey, D. E., "The Reform of October 1979: How it Happened and Why", Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, (part 2) (2005)
- Meulendyke, A., "A Review of Federal Reserve Policy Targets a Operating Guides in Recent Decades", Quarterly Review, 1988(Autumn) (1988), Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Mishkin, F. S., "The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets" (2019), Pearson Educated Limited
- Orphanides, A., "Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation", American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings, 92(2), pp.115~120 (2002)
- Orphanides, A., "Monetary Policy Evaluation with Noisy Information", Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(3), pp.605~631 (2003)
- Poole, W., "Burnsian Monetary Policy : Eight Years of Progress", The Journal of Finance, XXXXIV(2) (1979)
- Primiceri, G. E., "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy", The Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), pp.821~852 (2005)
- Thornton, D. L., "When did the FOMC Begin Ttargeting the Federal Funds Rate? What the Verbatim Transcripts Tell Us", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 38(8) (2006)
- Thornton, D. L., "Monetary Policy : Why Money Matters(and Interest Rates don’t)", Journal of Macroeconomics, 40, pp.202~213 (2014)
- Thornton, D. L., "Greenspan’s Conundrum and the Fed’s Ability to Affect Long-Term Yields", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 50(2-3), pp.513~543 (2018)