한국 통화정책의 최근 기조 평가 및 쟁점
Evaluation of Recent Policy Stance and Issues in Korea's Monetary Policy
1
조회
0
다운로드
3
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
한국은행 기준금리가 2021년 8월 인상된 데 이어 추가 인상 가능성이 제기되는 가운데, 본 연구는 국내 통화정책의 최근 기조를 평가하고 관련 쟁점을 논의한다. 한국은행의 성장 및 물가 전망을 바탕으로 표준적인 준구조 모형을 추정한 결과 GDP 갭이 향후 양(+)으로 전환되고 실질정책금리가 실질중립금리를 하회하는 등 한국은행의 정책기조 변경 논거와 일치하는 것으로 나타났다. 다만, 잠재성장률의 하락세가 지속됨에 따라 GDP갭을 통해 경기상황을 해석하고 정책방향을 도출하는 것은오류의 위험을 내포하고 있다. 또한, 명목중립금리 하락으로 정책여력 축소가 우려되는 만큼 추세인플레이션 관점의 정책 운용은 통화 당국이 추구해야 할 핵심과제이나 주요국에 비해 그 필요성이 제대로 인식되지 못하고 있다. 끝으로, 금융안정이통화 당국의 시급한 정책과제로 부상하였으나, 공적 보증공급 확대와 같은 부채 증가의 정책적 동인 및 주택가격 안정에 대한 금리 조정의 비용․편익을 감안할 때 주택가격 및 가계부채 안정화 수단으로서 금리 조정의 적정성에 대해 조심스럽게 접근할 필요가 있음을 지적한다.
Abstract
Amid the possibility of further hikes following the Bank of Korea’s Base Rate hike in August 2021, this study evaluates Korea’s monetary policy stance and discusses related issues. Estimating a canonical quasi-structure model based on the Bank of Korea’s growth and price outlook, it is found to be consistent with the rationale for changing the policy stance of the Bank of Korea, with the GDP gap converted to positive in the future and real policy rate below the real neutral interest rate. However, as the potential growth rate continues to decline, interpreting the economic situation through the GDP gap and deriving policy directions involves the risk of error. In addition, as there are concerns about reducing policy capacity due to falling nominal neutral interest rates, raising trend inflation is a key task for monetary authorities but its necessity is not properly recognized. Finally, although financial stability has emerged as an urgent policy task for monetary authorities, it is necessary to take a careful approach to the adequacy of interest rate adjustments as a means of stabilizing housing prices and household debt.
참고문헌 (37)
- 김병국, "글로벌 요인의 인플레이션에 대한 영향 - 추세 인플레이션 분석을 중심으로", 조사통계월보, 2019, pp.16~36 (2019), 한국은행[DOI]
- 김세직, "한국경제: 성장 위기와 구조 개혁", 경제논집, 55(1), pp.3~27 (2016)
- 김민수, "소규모 개방경제의 특성을 고려한중립적 실질금리 추정 및 변동요인 분석", 경제분석, 19(4), pp.47~86 (2013), 한국은행
- 최근 소비부진과 가계의 시간선호 변화, "배병호", BOK, ~, pp.BOK 경제리뷰 2014-1호 (2014)
- 오형석, "칼만필터를 이용한 우리나라의 중립금리 추정", 금융연구, 28(1), pp.1~26 (2014), 한국금융학회
- 이근영, "정책금리가 주택가격에 미치는 영향", 국제경제연구, 26(2), pp.35~61 (2020), 한국국제경제학회[DOI]
- 조동철, "통화정책 목적으로서의 물가안정과 금융안정", 한국경제포럼, 13(2), pp.1~18 (2020), 한국경제학회[DOI]
- 인플레이션보고서, "한국은행", ~ (2015)
- 통화신용정책보고서, "한국은행", ~ (2021)
- The Case for a Long-Run Inflation Target of Four Percent, "Ball, L", IMF, ~, pp.IMF working paper WP (2014), 14[DOI]
- Benati, L., "Leaning Against House Prices: A Structural VAR Investigation", Journal of Monetary Economics, 118, pp.399~412 (2021)
- Bernanke, B., "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?", American Economic Review, 91(2), pp.253~257 (2001)
- Bernanke, B. S., "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound : An Empirical Assessment", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, pp.1~100 (2004)
- Blanchard, O, "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(1) (2018)
- Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications, "Blanchard, O.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Papers 21726 (2015)
- Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy, "Blanchard, O.", IMF, ~, pp.IMF Staff Position Note SPN (2010), 10[DOI]
- Taylor-rule Consistent Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest, "Brand, C.", ECB, ~, pp.ECB working paper No.2257 (2019)
- Christensen, J. H. E., "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 101(5), pp.933~949 (2019)
- Clark, T. E., "Estimating Equilibrium Real Interest Rates in Real Time", The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 16(3), pp.395~413 (2005)
- Dudley, W., "Asset Bubbles and the Implications for Central Bank Policy", Remarks at The Economic Club of NewYork, ~ (2010)
- A Plucking Model of Business Cycles, "Dupraz, S.", UC Berkeley, ~ (2021)
- Evanoff, D., "New Perspectives on Asset Price Bubbles:Theory, Evidence and Policy" (2012), Oxford University Press
- "The ECB’s Monetary Policy Strategy Statement" (2021)[URL]
- "2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy" (2020)[URL]
- Greenspan, A., "The Challenge of Central Banking in a Demo-cratic Society", Remarks delivered at the Annual Dinnerand Francis Boyer Lecture of the American EnterpriseInstitute for Public Policy Research (1996)
- Holston, K., "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest : International Trends and Determinants", Journal of International Economics, 108, pp.S59~S75 (2017)[DOI]
- Joslin, S., "A New Perspective on Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models", Review of Financial Studies, 24(3), pp.926~970 (2011)[DOI]
- Kohn, D. L., "European Central Bank Colloquium Held in Honor of Otmar Issing" (2006)
- Laubach, T., "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest", Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), pp.1063~1070 (2003)
- Mishkin, F. S., "How Should we Respond to Asset Price Bubbles?", The Wharton Financial Institutions Center and Oliver Wyman Institute’s Annual Financial Risk Roundtable (2008)
- Pescatori, A., "Lower for Longer: Neutral Rate in the U.S", IMF Economic Review, 64, pp.708~731 (2016)
- Powell, J. H., "Monetary Policy and Risk Management at a Time of Low Inflation and Low Unemployment", Speech at the “Revolution or Evolution? Reexamining Economic Paradigms”60th Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics (2018)
- Rachel, L., "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, pp.1~54 (2019)
- Stock, J., "Why has U.S. Inflation become Harder to Forecast", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(1), pp.3~33 (2007)
- Summers, L., "Rethinking the Fed’s 2 Percent Inflation Target", pp.1~9 (2018), Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings
- Svensson, "Cost-benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind", Journal of Monetary Economics, 90, pp.193~213 (2017)
- Yellen, J., "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability", the 2014 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture, International Monetary Fund (2014)