주택가격의 불확실성이 주택공급시기 결정에 미치는 영향
Housing price volatility and timing of housing supply in pre-sale market
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본 연구는 취득세로 인한 주택시장의 문턱효과를 비모수적방법을 이용하여 보다 정교하게 분석하고, 시․도별 세수 영향을 분석하였다. 주요결론은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 커널밀도추정을 이용한 문턱효과 분석은 기존의연구 대비 보다 정교한 문턱효과의 분석이 가능하다는 것을 보여주었다. 둘째, 2020년 1분기 아파트 거래가격및 거래량 분포를 분석함으로써 취득세 세율체계 개편 이후 조세왜곡효과를 비롯한 문턱효과의 해소 정도를확인하였다. 취득세 한계세율의 비연속성이 완전히 해소되지 못해 조세에 의한 문턱효과도 부분적으로만 해소된 것으로 확인되었다. 셋째, 취득세 세율체계 개편은 시․도 간의 세수 격차를 촉진시키고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 전체적으로 취득세율 개편은 주택시장의 문턱효과를 해소하는데 부분적으로 성공을 거두고 있지만, 부작용도 발생하고 있었다. 본 연구는 주택시장의 문턱효과 분석방법론과 취득세 세수 영향 관점에서 학술적의의가 존재하고, 정책적 시사점을 제공할 것으로 판단된다.
Abstract
Using a non-parametric method, this study examined the threshold effect of the housing market due to acquisition tax in a more sophisticated analysis. The impact of tax revenues in cities and provinces across the country was then analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows. First, the threshold effect analysis using kernel density estimation revealed that more sophisticated threshold effects were possible compared to those found in conventional studies. Second, by analyzing the distribution of apartment transaction prices and volume in the first quarter of 2020, the degree of resolution of the threshold effect, including the effect of tax distortion, was confirmed after the reorganization of the acquisition tax rate system. As the non-continuity of the marginal tax rate for the acquisition tax the threshold effect of the tax was only partially resolved. Third, the reorganization of the acquisition tax rate system was found to facilitate the polarization of tax revenue between cities and provinces. Overall, the reorganization to address the threshold effect of the housing market has been partially successful, but side effects also appear to occur.
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