자동가치산정의 정확성 분석 및 투명성 관리 방안
An Analysis of the Accuracy of Automated Valuation Model and Transparency Management Plan
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본 연구는 점차 활용범위를 넓혀가고 있는 자동가치산정기법(automated valuation model, AVM)의 정확성 및 신뢰도 개선 방법을 연구하였다. 일찍이 AVM이 소개된 미국 시장은 Dodd-Frank Act 등을 통하여 AVM의 공정성, 정확성, 신뢰도에 대한 요구사항을 개선해 온 반면, 국내 AVM 시장은 대부분 내부 통제 수준에 머무르고 있다. 대량 정보확보가 가능한 국내 AVM 기업들의 추정치를 median absolute value percentage error, percentage predicted error@10% 기준을 사용하여 비교했을 때, 지역별로 상이한 정확도를 보였으며, 아파트 및 오피스텔의 하위시장에 대해서도 정확도가 다른 수준으로 나타났다. 이는 같은 AVM 기업이라도 지역별로 정확도가 다를 수 있으며, 지역별 정확도 기준 제시가 필요하다는 시사점을 보인다. 아울러, AVM의 정확성이 확보되는 경우, 감정가-실거래가 격차 확대에 따른 부실대출 및 전세 사기 예방을 위한 수단으로 활용할 수 있고, 부동산 담보채권의 2차 시장의 담보가치 모니터링 및 투자 포트폴리오 검사에까지도 활용범위를 넓힐 수 있을 것으로 전망한다. 이를 위해서는 AVM의 정확성 기준 설정 및 독립적인 제3자 비영리 검증기관의 도입이 필요하다.
Abstract
This study provided measures to improve the accuracy and reliability of automated valuation models (AVMs), which have been gradually expanding their scope of use. The US market, which introduced AVMs earlier than other markets, has improved the requirements for AVM fairness, accuracy and reliability through the Dodd-Frank Act, while the South Korean AVM market mostly remains unregulated, leaving AVM firms to regulate themselves. When valuations of domestic AVM firms which are possible to be massively obtained were analyzed by mainstream statistical standards such as median absolute value percentage error and percentage predicted error@10%, levels of accuracy were different in regional types and the same result applied to apartments and officetels. This suggests that even for the same AVM company, the level of accuracy could be different from regional types and that it is necessary to present accuracy standards for each region. In addition, when the accuracy of AVM is stable and validated, it could be used as a means to prevent non-performing loans and Jeonse fraud due to the gap between market and appraised values. Moreover, the scope of the AVM could be expanded to monitoring collateral values in the secondary market of real estate-backed securities and inspecting investment portfolios. To achieve this, it is necessary to establish accuracy standards for them and introduce an third-party, non-profit and independent verification agency.
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