기후변화 경제분석에서의 사회적 할인율에 대하여: 확률할인요인 모형 관점에서의 재해석
On the Social Discount Rate of Climate Change Economics: A Stochastic Discount Factor Model Perspective
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초록
기후변화 비용편익분석에 적용하는 사회적 할인율에 대한 논의를 확률할인요인(stochastic discount factor) 모형의 관점에서 재해석하고, 이로부터 두 가지 시사점을 도출한다. 첫째, 기후변화 적응정책의 적정 할인율은 완화정책의 적정 할인율 보다 높을 수 있으며, 적응정책의 경우 잉여피해의 크기가 클수록 적정 할인율이 높아진다. 둘째, 적응정책의 적정할인율은 국가별로 다를 수 있고, 선진국 보다는 이머징마켓에서 더 높을 수 있다.
Abstract
This paper re-interprets the debate on the social discount rate of climate change economics in the framework of the stochastic discount factor model. Two new implications are drawn from the analysis. First, the discount rates for climate change adaptation policies are higher than the discount rates for mitigation policies, and in case of adaptation policies, the bigger the residual damage is, the higher the discount rate becomes. Second, the appropriate discount rates for adaptation policies are different in different countries, and they are higher in emerging market countries than in developed countries.
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