재정정책과 금리정책의 정책 조합에 대한 실증 연구

Abstract

Governments use fiscal policy and interest rate policy to stabilize the economy. There are many studies to examine the effectiveness of fiscal policy and that of interest rate policy separately, but very few studies to examine fiscal and interest rate policy together. We examine the responsibility and effectiveness of fiscal policy and those of interest rate policy together using the data of OECD countries. First, we carefully document how fiscal and interest rate policy are used in 9 OECD countries. Second, we conduct regression analysis using fiscal balance, interest rates, and growth rate of GDP. We find that overall fiscal and interest rate policies works counter-cyclically in OECD countries. We also observe that fiscal policy has one year lag in response, while interest rates respond contemporaneously. We find that fiscal policy and interest rate policy are used in a complementary way. We finally observe that in a severe recession fiscal deficit becomes much larger but interest rate becomes higher.