국제자본이동 하에서 환율신축성과 경상수지 조정: 국가패널분석
Impact of Exchange Rate Flexibility on Current Account Rebalancing ⏤ with a Focus on International Capital Flows
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본 연구는 환율신축성이 글로벌 리밸런싱에 미치는 영향과 관련하여 1990년대 이후 규모가 크게 확대된 국제자본이동을 고려할 필요가 있다는 점에 착안하여 44개 국가를 대상으로 경상수지 조정과 외국인 자본유입 간의 관계 및 환율신축성의 역할을 실증 분석하였다. 추정 결과 첫째, 환율신축성이 높을수록 경상수지 적자 혹은 흑자가 유의한 조정을 보일 확률이 높아지는 직접적 효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 높은 환율신축성은 포트폴리오 및 기타 투자자금 유입을 촉진함으로써 경상수지 조정 확률을 낮추는 상쇄효과도 수반하였다. 이는 환율신축성 제고로 유입되는 해외자본이 경상적자국의 경우 적자보전 재원으로 이용되는 반면, 경상흑자국의 경우에는 교역재부문의 생산성 향상 등에 기여함으로써 경상흑자 조정확률을 낮추는 경향이 있음을 의미한다. 셋째, 경상흑자국의 경우 경상수지 흑자조정 확률이 높아지면 외국인 포트폴리오자금이 유출되는 것으로 나타났으나, 경상적자 조정확률이 외자유입에 미치는 영향은 유의하지 않았다. 본 고의 분석결과는 환율신축성 제고가 항상 경상수지 조정을 촉진하는 것은 아니며, 환율신축성과 함께 유입되는 해외자본의 효율적 활용 여부가 안정적 거시경제 운용의 관건이 될 수 있음을 시사한다.
Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between adjustments in global imbalances and financial flows with focus on the role of exchange rate flexibility. We identify the significant adjustments in current account deficit/surplus imbalances across 44 countries and then estimate the inter-relationship between non-residents’ capital inflows and current account adjustments by employing a simultaneous equation system estimation methodology. We find that enhancing exchange rate flexibility may have two opposite direct-positive- and indirect-negative- impacts on current account imbalance adjustments, hence more exchange rate flexibility does not guarantee a mitigation of global imbalances. Especially, the type of portfolio and other investment inflows which are susceptible to changes in global investor’s risk appetites are estimated to have stronger indirect effects making current account imbalances to continue.
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