북한의 핵무장과 역대 한국정부의 군사대응정책 연구

Abstract

North Korea is demanding the international community to trust and secure their will to denuclearize through the summit between South Korea, North Korea and the U.S. and North Korea. However, experts who deal with objective information are evaluating North Korea's credibility as low and that it has at least 20 nuclear weapons and various means of transport. The North's intentions for nuclear weapons have been mainly explained by the theory of prospects and military defense purpose, but the explanation is limited when considering the fact that the international community, especially the ROK-US, has consistently promised and adhered to the survival and security of North Korea, and the nature of nuclear weapons. If we consider North Korea's nuclear capability realistically and look at the intention of nuclear weapons from a different perspective, the viewpoint of denuclearization case studies and analysis should also be different. Based on Allison's research, which analyzed the Cuban nuclear missile crisis as a policy model, we analyzed the past Korean government's North Korean nuclear response policy. The South Korean government's North Korean nuclear military response policy was reasonable in its goals, but failed to achieve its goals due to lack of awareness of threats and restrictions on alternatives. The main reasons are the defensive military purpose theory firmly entrenched on the soil of a lack of awareness of threats and the double containment policy created by relying on Washington's extended deterrence policy. After applying the organizational output of the Ministry of National Defense, which is in charge of North Korea's nuclear response, to the model of organizational behavior, the ministry has shown compliance with the government's policy of reconciliation, cooperation, and peace, such as removing, reducing, and easing the perception of North Korea's nuclear threat. It has faithfully fulfilled its role in ensuring the U.S. nuclear umbrella through strengthening the Korea-U.S. alliance, but failed to take action to fundamentally suppress the North's nuclear program by utilizing its influence. It can be seen that the characteristics of the bureaucracy, such as the difficulties of fundamental change and gradual budget reflection, have all affected the South Korean government's policy of responding to the North's nuclear weapons.