Development and Application of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze Heatwave Impacts
1
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model to dynamically analyze the effects of heatwaves and apply it to real-world situations. For this purpose, first, the influencing factors of heatwaves were identified through previous studies. Second, a dynamic heatwave model was developed. Third, time series data from 2009 to 2018 were constructed, and the model was applied to Seoul. In this step, scenarios based on the budget were created, and the intensity of heatwaves resulting from changes in variables were measured. The results are as follows: First, the policy factors of heatwaves were classified into the cause and effect of the heatwave group, heatwave mitigation policy group, and heatwave adaptation group, forming a feedback structure. Second, it was observed that a 20% increase in budgets starting from 2040 led to temperature reductions of 1.57°C for the eco-friendly vehicle policy, 0.29°C for the high-efficiency air conditioners policy, 0.06°C for heatwave shelters, and 0.77°C for the creation of green space policy. Third, increasing the budget for heatwave shelters was found to be highly effective in reducing the number of people with heat-related illnesses.
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model to dynamically analyze the effects of heatwaves and apply it to real-world situations. For this purpose, first, the influencing factors of heatwaves were identified through previous studies. Second, a dynamic heatwave model was developed. Third, time series data from 2009 to 2018 were constructed, and the model was applied to Seoul. In this step, scenarios based on the budget were created, and the intensity of heatwaves resulting from changes in variables were measured. The results are as follows: First, the policy factors of heatwaves were classified into the cause and effect of the heatwave group, heatwave mitigation policy group, and heatwave adaptation group, forming a feedback structure. Second, it was observed that a 20% increase in budgets starting from 2040 led to temperature reductions of 1.57°C for the eco-friendly vehicle policy, 0.29°C for the high-efficiency air conditioners policy, 0.06°C for heatwave shelters, and 0.77°C for the creation of green space policy. Third, increasing the budget for heatwave shelters was found to be highly effective in reducing the number of people with heat-related illnesses.
참고문헌 (41)
- Climate Change, Impacts and Vulnerability in Europe 2012: An Indicator-based Report, "Agency, E. E.", Office for Official Publ. of the Europ, ~ (2012)
- Anderson, G. B., "Heat Waves in the United States : Mortality Risk During Heat Waves and Effect Modification by Heat Wave Characteristics in 43 US Communities", Environmental Health Perspectives, 119(2), pp.210~218 (2011)
- Barlas, Y, "Multiple Tests for Validation of System Dynamics Type of Simulation Models", European Journal of Operational Research, 42(1), pp.59~87 (1989)
- Chernyshev, V., "Morphological and Chemical Composition of Particulate Matter in Buses Exhaust", Toxicology Reports, 6, pp.120~125 (2019)
- Choi, Nam Hee, "A Study on the Dynamic Cost-benefit Analysis with System Dynamics: Modeling and Economic Feasibility", Korean System Dynamics Society, 3(2), pp.113~140 (2002)
- DARA, C, "In Climate Vulnerability Monitor-A Guide to the Cold Calculus of a Hot Planet", DARA and Climate Vulnerable Forum (2012)
- De Munck, C., "How Much can Air Conditioning Increase Air Temperatures for a City Like Paris, France?", International Journal of Climatology, 33(1), pp.210~227 (2013)
- Randall Dole, "Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?", Geophysical Research Letters, 38(6), pp.n (2011), a~n[DOI]
- Duran-Encalada, J. A., "The Impact of Global Climate Change on Water Quantity and Quality : A System Dynamics Approach to the US-Mexican Transborder Region", European Journal of Operational Research, 256(2), pp.567~581 (2017)
- Forzieri, G., "Increasing Risk Over time of Weather-related Hazards to the European Population : A Data-driven Prognostic Study", The Lancet Planetary Health, 1(5), pp.e200~e208 (2017)
- Garnaut, R, "The Garnaut Climate Change Review" (2008)
- Graham, A. K, "In On Positioning System Dynamics as an Applied Science of Strategy", Proceedings of the 2002 International System Dynamics Conference (2002)
- Haines, A., "Climate Change and Human Health : Impacts, Vulnerability, and Mitigation", The Lancet, 367(9528), pp.2101~2109 (2006)
- Howard, L., "The Climate of London: Deduced from Meteorological Observations Made in the Metropolis and at Various Places around It (Vol. 2)" (1833)
- Hua, L., "The Impacts of the Expansion of Urban Impervious Surfaces on Urban Heat Islands in a Coastal City in China", Sustainability, 12(2), pp.475~ (2020)
- Effects of Climate Change and Global Warming on Human Health, "Jang, Jae Yeon", 159~175 (2009)
- 김유미, "도시폭염 동태성 분석", Crisisonomy, 15(9), pp.39~48 (2019), (사)위기관리이론과실천[DOI]
- King, E. A., "Reducing Pedestrian Exposure to Environmental Pollutants : A Combined Noise Exposure and Air Quality Analysis Approach", Transportation Research Part D : Transport and Environment, 14(5), pp.309~316 (2009)
- Klinenberg, E, "Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago", pp.2015
- 권용석, "시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 폭염대응 정책효과 분석: 대구시 사례연구", 국토연구, 106, pp.41~64 (2020), 국토연구원[DOI]
- Lee, Sung Hee, "A Study on the Method of Urban Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change", Journal of Climate Change Research, 5(3), pp.257~266 (2014)
- Li, C., "Interaction between Urban Microclimate and Electric Airconditioning Energy Consumption during High Temperature Season", Applied Energy, 117, pp.149~156 (2014)
- Liao, F. C., "Influence of Urban Microclimate on Air-conditioning Energy Needs and Indoor Thermal Comfort in Houses", Advances in Meteorology, 2015, pp.1~9 (2015)
- 임인재, "논쟁적 과학이슈에 대한 신문보도 분석 : 기후변화의 원인과 대응 관련 보도를 중심으로", 한국언론학보, 57(6), pp.469~501 (2013), 한국언론학회
- Loughnan, M., "Mortality-temperature Thresholds for Ten Major Population Centres in Rural Victoria, Australia", Health & Place, 16(6), pp.1287~1290 (2010)
- Lowry, W. P, "Weather and Life: An Introduction to Biometeorology" (1969), Academic Press
- Martiello, M. A., "High Temperatures and Health Outcomes : A Review of the Literature", Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 38(8), pp.826~837 (2010)
- Meehl, G. A., "More Intense, more Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century", Science, 305(5686), pp.994~997 (2004)
- Morabito, M., "Increasing Heatwave Hazards in the Southeastern European Union Capitals", Atmosphere, 8(7), pp.115~ (2017)
- Nakamura, H., "Evolution and Dynamics of Summertime Blocking over the Far East and the Associated Surface Okhotsk High", Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 130(599), pp.1213~1233 (2004)
- Nduka, J. K., "Environmental Factors Affecting Human Health" (2019), Intech Open
- Park, Chung Kyu, "On the Nature of the 1994 East Asian Summer Drought", Journal of Climate, 10(5), pp.1056~1070 (1997)
- Salamanca, F., "Anthropogenic Heating of the Urban Environment Due to Air Conditioning", Journal of Geophysical Research : Atmospheres, 119(10), pp.5949~5965 (2014)
- Systems, V., "System Dynamics (Using Vensim)", Seoul School of Economics and Business Administration, ~ (2007)
- Takane, Y., "Urban Warming and Future Air-conditioning Use in an Asian Megacity : Importance of Positive Feedback", Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2(1), pp.1~11 (2019)
- Tol, R. S, "The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change : A Comment", Energy & Environment, 17(6), pp.977~981 (2006)
- Tremeac, B., "Influence of Air Conditioning Management on Heat Island in Paris Air Street Temperatures", Applied Energy, 95, pp.102~110 (2012)
- Weiss, J, "The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review" (2009)
- Welle, T., "Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards", pp.91~124 (2014), Elsevier
- Wu, H., "Assessing the Effects of Land Use Spatial Structure on Urban Heat Islands Using HJ-1B Remote Sensing Imagery in Wuhan, China", International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 32, pp.67~78 (2014)
- Zeng, Q., "Estimating Temperature-mortality Exposure-response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-city Level of China", International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 13(3), pp.279~ (2016)