중국 지역경제 잠재GRDP추정과 특징 연구 - 직할시를 중심으로 -

Abstract

This study estimated potential GDPs of the whole China and three municipalities, and analyzed potential economic growth rate and business cycles drawn out of the estimation to see how features of local economy are related to the economic trend of the whole China, and what distinctive commonness and difference there are among direct-controlled municipalities. Results of empirical analyses showed that the Chinese economy saw rapid economic growth and booming economy from China's OpenDoor & Regime Reform till the mid-90s while the Chinese economy saw economic contraction due to domestic effective demand, foreign currency crises in Asia and etc. from the latter half of the 90s. The Chinese economy got depressed after it enjoyed the economic boom in the 2000s and suffered from the financial crises in Asia, in its counteraction to which, China poured its investment and support in its western area represented by the City of Chongqing. And these counteraction strategies, interlocked with the potential growth rate of its western area that had surged due to its Great Development of the West initiated from year 2000, contribute to current economic expansion. Since these results coincide with the economic reality China has experienced, it can be said that this study's empirical analyses have proper credibility. Through the analyses, the hypothesis of this study was verified that China, due to its divisive characteristics, might have differing features in its business cycle as well as in potential growth rate pursuant to features of local economy though the localities form the same local economy. Specifically, Shanghai and Beijing tended to have potential growth rate and business cycles similar to the whole China and to each other, Shanghai speeding up faster, while Chongqing was clearly different from not only the whole nation but also Shanghai and Beijing in both potential economic growth rate and business cycles.