중국 거시경제정책의 유효성과 지역경제에의 영향분석 -통화정책을 중심으로-

Abstract

This study analyzed the validity of monetary policy among China's macroeconomic policies and its effects on regional economies with different characteristics. To analyze the effects of monetary policy on the Chinese economy, inflation, GDP, and money supply are selected as variables and the order of variables are same. According to a result of impulse response analysis, it is shown that GDPs from the second quarter to the fourth quarter have statistically meaningful responses on the shock of money supply. However, they do not have statistically meaningful responses when the sample range is selected excepting the financial crisis period. Based on the results, in terms of the Chinese general economy, it is shown that the money supply does not have meaningful effects on the Chinese real economy. To analyze the effects of money supply on regional economies, Chinese regions are divided into Beijing, Anhui, Jiangsu, Jilin, and Chongqing and the regional responses, and the relative importance of variances by region corresponding to the shock of money supply are analyzed through an impulse response analysis and a variance decomposition analysis. According to a result of the impulse response analysis, regional economies of Beijing, Anhui, and Jiangsu didn't show meaningful responses to the shock of money supply whereas regional economies of Jilin and Chongqing did. It is assumed that this result was caused due to the rise in loans in Jilin and Chongqing where China intensively increased the investment to deal with the financial crisis.