러시아 북극 전략의 군사화
Militarization of Russia’s Arctic Strategy
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러시아는 북극지역을 다른 국가들과 협력하여 인류 공동의 도전을 해결하는 것이 가능한 지역으로 보았다. 그러나 점차 서방과의 관계, 특히 2014년 우크라이나 사태 이후 양자 관계가 악화되면서 러시아의 북극 전략은 경쟁적이고 대결적인 입장으로 변화하였다. 북극을 협력보다는 자국의 경제적, 군사적 확장영역으로 보게 된 것이다. 나아가 강대국으로의 야망을 펼치기 위한 무대로 보았다. 이에 따라 러시아는 미국과 나토를 상대하기 위하여 군사적 우위를 북극지역에서의 최우선 과제로 간주하였다. ‘러시아연방 북극지역’(AZRF)을 넘어 통제 및 거부 능력을 행사하려는 야망과, 북대서양을 향해 군사적 긴장을 밀어붙이려는 크렘린의 의지는 지역 항행의 요충 지인 GIUK gap과 GIN gap, 그리고 스발바르 군도에 대한 압력을 증가시키고 있다. 러시아는 또한 동북아에서, 구체적으로 일본과 한국에 전역미사일방어(TMD) 시스템의 배치를 방해하여 미국의 전략적 지배력을 약화시키려 하고 있다. 북극에 대한 러시아의 공세적 전략에 대응하기 위해서는 미국과 NATO가 그들의 북극에 대한 입장, 동인, 능력에 대한 현실적인 평가를 바탕으로 계획을 세우는 것이 중요하다.
Abstract
Russia viewed the Arctic Zone as a region where it is possible to solve common challenges for humanity through cooperation with other countries. However, as relations with the West gradually deteriorated, especially after the Ukraine incident in 2014, Russia’s Arctic strategy changed into a competitive and confrontational position. They came to view the Arctic as an area of economic and military expansion for their countries rather than cooperation. Furthermore, it was seen as a stage to unfold its ambitions to become a great power. Accordingly, Russia considered military superiority as its top priority in the Arctic region in order to deal with the United States and NATO. The Kremlin’s ambition to exercise control and denial capabilities beyond the AZRF and its willingness to push military tensions toward the North Atlantic are increasing pressure on the GIUK gap, the GIN gap, and the Svalbard archipelago, choke points for regional navigation. Russia is also seeking to undermine America’s strategic dominance in Northeast Asia, specifically by interfering with the deployment of theater missile defense (TMD) systems in Japan and South Korea. To counter Russia's offensive strategy in the Arctic, it is important for the United States and NATO to develop plans based on a realistic assessment of their Arctic positions, drivers, and capabilities.
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