Evaluation of a Decade of North Korean Economy under the Kim Jong-un Regime
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This research attempts to evaluate the economic performance of North Korea for the past 10 years since Kim Jong Un came to power in 2011. The Kim Jong Un regime was able to maintain a steady economic growth for the first six years despite the challenging initial environment that it had faced. The growing overseas demand following the high growth of the Chinese economy and economic policies utilizing the market sector are likely the main forces of this steady growth. However, the North Korean economy is currently facing arguably the worst economic crisis since the 1990s caused by tightening UN economic sanctions since 2017 and subsequent border lockdowns due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The fundamental cause of the economic breakdown lies in the Byungjin (Parallel Development) policy, a policy that involves the simultaneous development of nuclear weapons and economy, which has been the main strategy of the regime since 2012. The structural damages in industrial sectors are expected to continue should the policy direction of the regime remains unchanged, which can aggravate the import of intermediate goods and capital goods.
Abstract
This research attempts to evaluate the economic performance of North Korea for the past 10 years since Kim Jong Un came to power in 2011. The Kim Jong Un regime was able to maintain a steady economic growth for the first six years despite the challenging initial environment that it had faced. The growing overseas demand following the high growth of the Chinese economy and economic policies utilizing the market sector are likely the main forces of this steady growth. However, the North Korean economy is currently facing arguably the worst economic crisis since the 1990s caused by tightening UN economic sanctions since 2017 and subsequent border lockdowns due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The fundamental cause of the economic breakdown lies in the Byungjin (Parallel Development) policy, a policy that involves the simultaneous development of nuclear weapons and economy, which has been the main strategy of the regime since 2012. The structural damages in industrial sectors are expected to continue should the policy direction of the regime remains unchanged, which can aggravate the import of intermediate goods and capital goods.
참고문헌 (36)
- "Economic Statistics System" (2021)[URL]
- Chen, Wenhong, "Does the Colour of the Cat Matter? The Red Hat Strategy in China's Private Enterprises", Management and Organization Review, 3(1), pp.55~80 (2007)
- Changes in the North Korean Economy and Guidelines to New Strategies of Inter-Korean Cooperation after UNSCR since 2016, "Choi, J. H.", Korea Institute for International Economy Policy, ~, pp.Research Report 19-09 (2016)
- Choi, J. Y., "North Korean Finan-cial System and Its Challenges", pp.143~147 (2017), The Export-Import Bank of Korea
- North Korean Five-Year plan for National Economic De-velopment and its implication for Agricultural sector, "Choi, Y. H.", Korea Rural Economic Institute, ~, pp.KREI current issue No. 83 (2021)
- "North Korea Market Trends" (2021)[URL]
- Gray, K., "Following in China's footsteps? The political economy of North Korean reform", The Pacific Review, 30(1), pp.51~73 (2017)
- North Korea National Market Information: Focus on Status of Formal Markets, "Hong, M.", Korea Institute for National Unification, ~, pp.KINU 16-24 (2016)
- North Korean Economy in the Kim Jong-un Regime, "Hong, J. H.", Korea Institute for National Unification, ~, pp.KINU 17-18 (2017)
- Social Changes in North Korea in 2016, "Jang, Y. S.", Seoul National University, ~ (2016)
- 조동호, "김정은 시대 북한경제의 개혁․개방 평가", 한국경제포럼, 13(4), pp.1~37 (2021), 한국경제학회
- 정승호, "Economic Growth and Trade of North Korea with China: Cointegration and Granger Causality Test", 비교경제연구, 23(2), pp.1~37 (2016), 한국비교경제학회[DOI]
- Jung, S. H., "Dollarization, Seigniorage, and Prices: The Case of North Korea", Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(11), pp.2463~2475 (2017)
- Social Changes in North Korea in 2020, "Kim, H. J.", Seoul National University, ~ (2020)
- Kim Jong Un’s Economic Improvement Measures-Evalu-ation and Prospect, "Kim, J. H.", The Export-Import Bank of Korea, ~ (2014)
- Changes in North Korea’s Financial System During the Kim Jong-un Era - Based on North Korean Literature, "Kim, M. J.", Bank of Korea, ~, pp.BOK working paper 2021-6 (2021)
- The Growth of the Informal Economy in North Korea, "Kim, S. J.", Korea Institute for National Unification, ~, pp.KINU 14-03 (2014)
- Markets and Private Sector, "Kim, S. J.", Korea Development Institute, ~ (2020)
- Why North Korean Five-Year Strategy for National Eco-nomic Development failed?, "Kim, S. J.", Korea Institute for National Unification, ~, pp.Online Series CO21-06 (2021)
- Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, "North Korean Foreign Trade", ~
- 이종규, "What Determines the DPRK’s Anthracite Exports to China?: Implications for the DPRK’s Economy", KDI Journal of Economic Policy, 37(2), pp.40~63 (2015), 한국개발연구원[DOI]
- Assessment of North Korea’s Current Economic Policies and Outlook, "Lee, J. K.", Korea Development Institute, ~, pp.Policy Study 2016-08 (2016)
- The DPRK’s Policy Response to Changes in the Internal and External Environment, "Lee, J. K.", Korea Development Institute, ~, pp.Policy Study 2018-09 (2018)
- New Structure of North Korean Economy and Sanctions: Analysis and Hypothesis, "Lee, S.", Korea Development Institute, ~ (2019)
- Analysis on the Markets of North Korea, "Lee, S. K", Korea Institute for Indus-trial Economic & Trade, ~, pp.Research Report 2014-738 (2014)
- Dollarization in North Korea, "Lee, S. K.", Korea Institute for Industrial Economic & Trade, ~, pp.Research Report 12-653 (2012)
- A Study on the Economic Reform in North Ko-rea under Kim Jong Un: Focusing on the “Our Style of Economic Management”, "Lee, S. K.", Korea Institute for Indus-trial Economic & Trade, ~, pp.Research Report 19-09 (2018)
- Estimation of China’s Investments on North Korea after 2000s, "Lim, S. H.", Korea Institute for International Economy Policy, ~ (2016)
- Kim Jong-Un’s Economy Policy and Its Evaluation: focus on Our Own Style Economic Management System, "Min, J. K.", Bank of Korea, ~, pp.BOK Note 2014-16 (2014)
- "Inter-Korean Exchanges & Cooperation" (2021)[URL]
- 문성민, "Dollarization in North Korea: Evidence from a Survey of North Korean Refugees", East Asian Economic Review, 21(1), pp.81~100 (2017), 대외경제정책연구원[DOI]
- North Korea – Characteristics of Joint Ventures with Foreign Partners, 2004-2011, "Open-Source Center", OSC, ~ (2012)
- 양문수, "김정은 시대 북한의 경제개혁 조치: 중국과 비교의 관점", 아세아연구, 59(3), pp.114~159 (2016), 아세아문제연구원
- 양문수, "북한 소규모 사유화의 수준과 추세: 정량적 접근", 통일연구, 20(2), pp.45~88 (2016), 통일연구원[DOI]
- Evaluation on Estimate of North Korean Economic Growth by Bank of Korea, "Yang, U. C.", The Sejong Institute, ~, pp.Sejong Policy Brief 2017-21 (2017)
- World Steel in Figures 2016, "World Steel Association", ~ (2016)