Can North Korea Catch Two Rabbits at Once: Nuke and Economy? One Year of the Byungjin Line in North Korea and Its Future
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North Korea claims the Byungjin Line is indeed the “treasured sword” with whichit can achieve both economic development and defense reinforcement to speed upthe construction of a strong and prosperous socialist nation. Aiming at evaluatingits prospects, this study seeks to capture the main features, goals and tasks of theByungjin Line envisioned by the Kim regime and then assess if its empiricalrecords over the first year of Byungjin go in the right direction as planned. Whilethe Byungjin Line pays more attention to the civilian economy unlike the North’spreceding policies, it has made only marginal progress short of innovation in itseconomy but strengthened the national defense industry reinforcing its conventionalwarfare capacity as well as nuclear arsenal. Without making any dramatic changes,the Byungjin Line is unsustainable in the long term, deepening international sanctionsand prolonging the country’s economic isolation. South Korea should follow policiesencouraging North Korea prioritize economy in its own policy, reducing the North’seconomic dependence on China, and adopt a pragmatic approach to the North’snuclear ambitions.
Abstract
North Korea claims the Byungjin Line is indeed the “treasured sword” with whichit can achieve both economic development and defense reinforcement to speed upthe construction of a strong and prosperous socialist nation. Aiming at evaluatingits prospects, this study seeks to capture the main features, goals and tasks of theByungjin Line envisioned by the Kim regime and then assess if its empiricalrecords over the first year of Byungjin go in the right direction as planned. Whilethe Byungjin Line pays more attention to the civilian economy unlike the North’spreceding policies, it has made only marginal progress short of innovation in itseconomy but strengthened the national defense industry reinforcing its conventionalwarfare capacity as well as nuclear arsenal. Without making any dramatic changes,the Byungjin Line is unsustainable in the long term, deepening international sanctionsand prolonging the country’s economic isolation. South Korea should follow policiesencouraging North Korea prioritize economy in its own policy, reducing the North’seconomic dependence on China, and adopt a pragmatic approach to the North’snuclear ambitions.
참고문헌 (26)
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