사할린의 인구 감소 현상과 그 원인

Abstract

The change of population structure is one of the fundamental elements that stipulates the basic frames of politics, economy and society in a certain nation. One cannot establish the reasonable policies of political system, industrial structure, housing problems and social security without the understanding of population situations in a given nation. It is necessary to have a sound and dynamic population structure to maintain the nation’s growth momentum. When the population steadily decreases and the aging of population accelerates, the production and the consumption shrink, and the growth potential diminishes due to the reduction of the economically active population. In addition, the overall economic burden of supporting the population is aggravated and the pressure on the fiscal deficit gets serious due to increased social welfare spending. Given this statement, facing the situations of the population decline in full swing since 1992 and even the shrinking labor force since 2007, Russia regards the population problem as a crucial issue for the nation’s fate. The Soviet Union experienced the population decreases four times, they were temporary phenomena by political or military upheavals. After the population of Far East peaked at about 8 million in 1992 at a rapid speed with the result of emigration policy of the Soviet Union for the development of Far East that is rich in natural resources, the political and economic situation in Far East is estimated to have an unpredictable and negative change owing to the steady population decrease in Far East, such as Sakhalin and Vladivostok. Moreover, as population decrease and aging of population have carried long-term and structural aspects since 1992, they have caused economic and social problems in the regions. Sociologists warn that if the current imbalance in the level of immigration persists, the population of Far East in 2025 can be reduced to 4.7 million, the level of the Far East in 1959. Thus, in the thesis I investigate the population decrease in Sakhalin which is a main part of Far East. In Chapter II.2 I analyze the change of total population in Sakhalin from 1970 to 2009. The data on the gender ratio by year of Sakhalin are presented based on data from Регионы России (2008) and the social characteristics according to gender are examined in Chapter II.3. The gender ratios by age groups of Sakhalin are provided on the basis of the data of the Sakhalin State Statistics Bureau and their characteristic symptoms are described in Chapter II.4. Finally, in Chapter III I present the causes of the ongoing population decrease phenomena in Sakhalin and the effort of Russian government for the decrease. This population decline phenomenon in Sakhalin has a significant influence on the recent increasing expansion of Korean enterprises into Russia in order to secure natural resources and enter consuming markets as well as on the economy of Far East.