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제주관측지점에서 폭염의 장기간 변화 특성

Characteristics of long-term change in heatwave days in Jeju

박철홍|차유미|임병환|최재원
기후연구소 (KU Climate Research Institute)|2015.12|기후연구 (Journal of Climate Research)|제10권 제4호|pp. 297-311|DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.14383/cri.2015.10.3.297

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키워드

Jeju제주폭염heatwaveclimate regime shift기후레짐이동statistical change-point analysis통계적시점변화분석북서태평양 아열대고기압western North Pacific subtropical high

초록

This study analyzed the frequency of heatwave occurrences in Jeju Island in summer season (June to September) for the recent 46 years (1968-2013). The frequency showed an increasing trend up until now and we applied statistical change-point analysis in order to determine whether this increasing trend had a climate regime shift. As a result, it was discovered that frequency of heatwave occurrences has rapidly increased since 1990. Thus, to determine the causes of rapid increase in frequency of heatwave occurrences in Jeju Island since 1990, a difference in mean values of June to September between a period of 1990-2013 and a period of 1968-1989 was analyzed. The analysis result of differences between two periods about stream flows showed that large anomalous anticyclonic circulations were strengthened in the subtropical western Pacific and the center of the small anomalous anticyclone, which was branched westwardly out of the anticyclonic circulations was located within the southern part of the Korean Peninsula. This strengthening of the anomalous anticyclone in the Korean Peninsula was also shown at the middle and upper troposphere. The anomalous anticyclonic circulations, which were expanded to the Korean Peninsula from the subtropical western Pacific in recent years was due to strengthening of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in the Korean Peninsula. Hot and humid air can be introduced into the Korean Peninsula due to the strengthening WNPSH in the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, a difference in daily maximum temperature at 2m height as well as sensible heat net flux between two periods were analyzed in order to determine the degree of the heat at the ground. There was positive anomalies found along the coast in East Asia and the center of the positive anomalies was linked to the Korean Peninsula via the northern part of China. Thus, the Korean Peninsula including Jeju area had more heat than usual in recent years.

Abstract

This study analyzed the frequency of heatwave occurrences in Jeju Island in summer season (June to September) for the recent 46 years (1968-2013). The frequency showed an increasing trend up until now and we applied statistical change-point analysis in order to determine whether this increasing trend had a climate regime shift. As a result, it was discovered that frequency of heatwave occurrences has rapidly increased since 1990. Thus, to determine the causes of rapid increase in frequency of heatwave occurrences in Jeju Island since 1990, a difference in mean values of June to September between a period of 1990-2013 and a period of 1968-1989 was analyzed. The analysis result of differences between two periods about stream flows showed that large anomalous anticyclonic circulations were strengthened in the subtropical western Pacific and the center of the small anomalous anticyclone, which was branched westwardly out of the anticyclonic circulations was located within the southern part of the Korean Peninsula. This strengthening of the anomalous anticyclone in the Korean Peninsula was also shown at the middle and upper troposphere. The anomalous anticyclonic circulations, which were expanded to the Korean Peninsula from the subtropical western Pacific in recent years was due to strengthening of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in the Korean Peninsula. Hot and humid air can be introduced into the Korean Peninsula due to the strengthening WNPSH in the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, a difference in daily maximum temperature at 2m height as well as sensible heat net flux between two periods were analyzed in order to determine the degree of the heat at the ground. There was positive anomalies found along the coast in East Asia and the center of the positive anomalies was linked to the Korean Peninsula via the northern part of China. Thus, the Korean Peninsula including Jeju area had more heat than usual in recent years.

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