동아시아 겨울철 기온과 강수량의 경년 변동에 대한 원격상관 기후 지수들의 기여도
Contribution of Teleconnection Indices to the Interannual Variability of Winter Temperature and Precipitation in East Asia
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We investigates teleconnection climate indices related to the interannual variability of winter (DJF) temperature and precipitation in East Asia for the thirty-two years (1991/1992-2022/2023) to quantify their roles in explaining the variability of temperature and precipitation. Through correlation analysis, winter temperature in East Asia has a significant positive correlation with the Niño3.4 index and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index among other teleconnection indices. The winter precipitation shows a significant positive correlation with the Niño3.4 index. In order to exclude redundancy for the same phenomenon, simple and multiple regression analyses are performed on winter temperature and precipitation by using only Niño3.4 index and AO index among other teleconnection indices. As a result of multiple regression analysis of winter temperature considering both indices, the two indices can explain about 29% of winter temperature variability in East Asia. Through the spatial pattern of the coefficient of determination, we found that the temperature variability in Korea could be explained by about 40% of total variability. On the other hand, a simple regression analysis of winter precipitation using Niño3.4 index shows that the Niño3.4 index can explain about 45% of winter precipitation variability in East Asia. Through the spatial distribution of the coefficient of determination, it is found that the precipitation variability in southern Japan could be best by explaining about 60% of total variability.
Abstract
We investigates teleconnection climate indices related to the interannual variability of winter (DJF) temperature and precipitation in East Asia for the thirty-two years (1991/1992-2022/2023) to quantify their roles in explaining the variability of temperature and precipitation. Through correlation analysis, winter temperature in East Asia has a significant positive correlation with the Niño3.4 index and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index among other teleconnection indices. The winter precipitation shows a significant positive correlation with the Niño3.4 index. In order to exclude redundancy for the same phenomenon, simple and multiple regression analyses are performed on winter temperature and precipitation by using only Niño3.4 index and AO index among other teleconnection indices. As a result of multiple regression analysis of winter temperature considering both indices, the two indices can explain about 29% of winter temperature variability in East Asia. Through the spatial pattern of the coefficient of determination, we found that the temperature variability in Korea could be explained by about 40% of total variability. On the other hand, a simple regression analysis of winter precipitation using Niño3.4 index shows that the Niño3.4 index can explain about 45% of winter precipitation variability in East Asia. Through the spatial distribution of the coefficient of determination, it is found that the precipitation variability in southern Japan could be best by explaining about 60% of total variability.
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