체계 변위 전후 기간 동안 우리나라 1월 평균기온 변화의 원인
Causes of January Mean Temperature Change Before and After Regime Shift in Korea
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초록
In this study, the cause of the abrupt increase (regime shift) in Korea’s January mean temperature around 1986 was analyzed. The results of the EOF analysis show that the inter-annual variability of the northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation in January appear mainly in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode, but the spatial pattern of the AO mode changed before and after the regime shift (RS). In particular, before RS, the positive signal of AO did not appear in the North Pacific, whereas after RS, the positive signal was extended from the Aleutian Islands to Korea. In resultant, the warm southerly wind anomaly appeared in Korea, contributing to the abrupt increase of the temperature in Korea. The correlation coefficient pattern between the AO index (AOI) and sea level pressure (SLP) also supports the spatial change of the EOF pattern before and after RS. Thus, the correlation coefficient of January mean temperature and AOI were increased from 0.323 to 0.514 before and after the regime shift. This means that the major factor in the abrupt increase in January temperature is closely related to the change in the AO pattern.
Abstract
In this study, the cause of the abrupt increase (regime shift) in Korea’s January mean temperature around 1986 was analyzed. The results of the EOF analysis show that the inter-annual variability of the northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation in January appear mainly in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode, but the spatial pattern of the AO mode changed before and after the regime shift (RS). In particular, before RS, the positive signal of AO did not appear in the North Pacific, whereas after RS, the positive signal was extended from the Aleutian Islands to Korea. In resultant, the warm southerly wind anomaly appeared in Korea, contributing to the abrupt increase of the temperature in Korea. The correlation coefficient pattern between the AO index (AOI) and sea level pressure (SLP) also supports the spatial change of the EOF pattern before and after RS. Thus, the correlation coefficient of January mean temperature and AOI were increased from 0.323 to 0.514 before and after the regime shift. This means that the major factor in the abrupt increase in January temperature is closely related to the change in the AO pattern.
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