글로벌 금융위기 이후 세계 액화천연가스(LNG) 시장의 변화와 도입계약에 미치는영향

Abstract

World LNG market has a rigid unique feature which is very different from that of oil market. Nevertheless, LNG has several merits comparing with Pipeline Natural Gas(PNG) and LNG will enlarge the market share in total Energy market of the world from 25% in 2008 to 50% in 2030. Even natural gas is also a kind of fossil fuels, it is very environmental-friendly energy which produces carbon dioxide emissions significantly lower than coal or oil. Many energy specialists expect that the demand on natural gas will increase more and more. But LNG market has still several factors which should be improved on the conditions of contract so far. More than 85% of contracts volume is consist of long-term contract more than 20 years. And there are TOP(Take Or Pay), quality, delivery point and transportation, destination clause etc. Those are the constraint conditions in LNG market development. Meanwhile, the main factor which will determine the contract conditions is the balance between world supply and demand volume. Generally speaking, the forecasting of supply and demand balance in LNG market depends on recovery speed of world economy. According to the several forecasting data, at first it will be better for buyers on LNG spot and short-term market than sellers within one or two years. Therefore gas price will be very low in LNG spot market. But It will change from buyer's market to seller's market in 2015 because of over-demand. Although the demand will recover after global economic crisis, the supplying time will be postponed for delaying of FID(Final Investment Determine). As a general sale and purchase agreement, the contract conditions of LNG contract have been determined by the negotiation power between buyer and seller, and the time when the contract is finalized has been very important factor in LNG contract. And seller's market will continue in long-term LNG contract market till 2015.