우즈베키스탄의 유라시아경제연합 가입: 경제적 기대효과와 부정적 여파의 분석
Uzbekistan’s Entry into the Eurasian Economic Union: An Analysis of Expected Economic Effects and Negative Impact
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새로운 리더십 하에서 우즈베키스탄은 이전의 폐쇄적인 대외정책과는 다른 개방적인 노선으로 전환하고 있으며 특히 경제적으로 유라시아경제연합(EAEU)의 가입을 적극적으로 추진하고 있다. 과거 우즈베키스탄은 유라시아 지역 내에서 러시아의 패권적 영향력을 피하려는 의도와 자국이 추구하는 독자적이고 보호적인 경제노선과의 양립 불가성 등을 근거로 지역 내 경제연합 참여에 소극적인 태도를 견지해왔다. 하지만 미르지요예프 대통령의 정책은 EAEU 가입을 통한 긍정적인 측면에 초점을 맞추고 있는데, 첫째, EAEU 가입은 시장확장의 효과를 통해 우즈베키스탄의 수출확대에 기여할 것이며, 둘째, 러시아에 대한 노동이주를 원활화하는 데 기여하고, 셋째, EAEU 중심의 디지털 표준강화와 기술이전을 가속화할 수 있다. 반면, 과거의 사례로 볼 때, EAEU 내에서 비관세장벽의 강화로 간헐적으로 수출에 어려움을 겪을 가능성이 높다. 또한 노동이주 간소화에 따라 고급인력이 러시아나 카자흐스탄과 같은 더 큰 시장으로 유출되거나 디지털 표준강화를 통해 러시아 의존성이 확대되는 부정적인 측면이 부각될 수 있다.
Abstract
Under the new leadership, Uzbekistan is shifting to an open line, which is different from its previous closed foreign policy, and is actively seeking to join the Eurasian Economic Union. In the past, Uzbekistan has maintained a passive attitude toward economic union participation in the region based on its intention to avoid Russia’s hegemonic influence within the Eurasian region and its incompatibility with its own and protective economic lines. But new foreign policy focuses on the positive aspects of joining the EAEU, firstly, EAEU will contribute to Uzbekistan’s export expansion through the effect of market expansion, secondly, it will contribute to smoothing labor migration to Russia, and thirdly, it can accelerate the EAEU-centric digital standardization and technology transfer. On the other hand, in past cases, it is highly likely that exports will suffer intermittently due to the strengthening of non-tariff barriers within the EAEU. The simplification of labor migration could also highlight the negative aspects of the outflow of high-quality personnel to larger markets such as Russia and Kazakhstan, or the expansion of Russian dependence through the strengthening of digital standards.
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