에너지로 본 우크라이나 전쟁과 국제질서의 변화: 공공재론적 패권안정론을 중심으로
The Ukrainian War and the Transformation of the International Order: Focusing on the Hegemonic Stability Theory
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초록
본 논문은 셰일혁명, 코로나19 등 세계사적인 사건들로 축적된 변화가 우크라이나 전쟁을 계기로 다양하게 분출되면서 여러 부문에서 변환을 겪고 있는 세계 정치경제의 복합적인 양상을 분석함으로써 패권경쟁의 양상과 국제질서의 향방을 논의하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위한 분석틀로 가장 대표적인 국제체계 수준에서의 이론인 패권안정이론의 공공재이론을 사용하였으며, 에너지가 세계 모든 국가의 사활적인 이익이 담긴 자원이라는 점에서 안정적인 에너지 공급 시스템을 패권국가가 제공하는 공공재로 설정하였다. 이를 구성하는 하부 단위로 안정적인 국제통화 시스템 구축, 에너지 교역로 보호, 안정적인 에너지 공급 보장으로 정의하였다. 미국은 그동안 페트로 달러 체제를 통한 안정적인 달러화 기축통화 제도 구축, 군사력을 이용한 해상운송로의 안전 보장, 중동지역의 안전보장과 셰일혁명을 통한 에너지의 안정적인 공급 등 패권국가로서 공공재를 안정적으로 제공해왔다. 그러나 우크라이나 전쟁을 계기로 에너지를 둘러싼 변화들이 분출되면서 국제공공재에서 미국이 담당하던 역할을 러시아와 중국이 일부분 수행하는 모습이 곳곳에서 목격되고 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 예기치 못한 사건들이 세계 질서의 전환점이 되기도 한다는 점에서 이것이 국제질서 변화를 반드시 이끌 것이라고 예측하기는 어렵다. 그러나 에너지 소비량의 90% 이상을 수입에 의존하고 있으며, 세계 유일한 분단국가인 한국은 이같은 상황변화를 면밀히 분석하여 국가 안보와 함께 에너지 안보 역시 담보할 수 있는 전략을 선제적으로 수립해야 할 것이다.
Abstract
Today, a series of world-historical events such as the shale revolution and the COVID-19 pandemic have brought major and minor changes to the global political economy. These changes are showing signs of bringing a change in the world order in the wake of the Ukraine war. The United States has been stably providing energy-related public goods as a hegemon, such as establishing a stable dollar-denominated key currency system through the petro-dollar system, ensuring the safety of energy transport routes using military force, and securing a stable supply of energy. However, since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, China and Russia are showing some roles in providing international public goods related to energy that the United States has been playing. The purpose of this study is to understand the direction of the international order by analyzing the synthetic aspects of such a global political scene. As an analysis framework for this, the public goods theory of the hegemony stability theory, which is the most representative theory at the level of the international system, was used. In addition, since energy is a resource containing vital interests of all countries in the world, the stable supply of energy is set as a public good provided by the hegemon. Besides, the establishment of a stable international monetary system, protection of energy trade routes, and guarantee of stable energy supply were defined as subunits constituting international public goods related to energy.
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