한국 제조업의 이윤율 추이와 변동요인
An Analysis of Determinants of Profit Rate
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본 연구에서는 항등식을 이용해 이윤율 구성요소를 분해하는 전통적인 분석방법과 달리 기술진보, 협상력, 세계화가 이윤율에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 모형을 구축하고, 1991~2009년 동안 한국 제조업의 18개 업종 패널자료를 사용해 이윤율 변동요인을 분석했다. 분석결과, 마르크스 편향적 기술진보에 따른 자본-노동비율 증가는 이윤율을 하락시키고, 연구개발투자 확대에 따른 요소증진적 기술진보와 노동조합 조직률 하락은 이윤율을 상승시켰다. 세계화가 이윤율에 미치는 영향은 양면적인데, 외국인직접투자와 해외직접투자는 이윤율을 상승시키고, 시장개방은 이윤율을 하락시켰다. 시기별로는 외환위기 이전(1991~1998년)에는 설비투자 확대에 따른 자본-노동비율증가와 시장개방이 이윤율을 하락시켰으며, 외환위기 이후(1999~2009년)에는 생산자본의 세계화와 연구개발투자가 이윤율 상승을 주도했고 노동조합 조직률 하락이이를 뒷받침했다. 이와 같은 분석결과는 이윤율 구성요소를 분해하고 자본-노동비율 변화에 주목하는 전통적인 분석방법으로는 생산의 세계화와 기술변화가 급속도로 진행되는 한국경제의 이윤율 동학을 설명하는 데 충분하지 않으며, 기술진보, 세계화, 협상력의효과를 분석하는 새로운 접근방법이 모색될 필요가 있다는 시사점을 제공한다.
Abstract
In this paper, I use the Marxian conception of profit rates to analyse how Korean manufacturing industries have risen in profitability since the 1997 financial crisis. I explore the determinants of profit rate based on the panel dataset containing 19 years’ of data on 18 Korean manufacturing industries. I tests the effect of technical progress, globalization and the bargaining power of labor and capital on the profit rate in the period from 1991~2009. The main empirical results are as follows. (1) Technical changes measured by the autonomous capital-labor ratio increase have a negative effect on the profit rate. This finding is consistent with the Marx-biased technical changes hypothesis, which is that the increase of the capital-labor ratio, driven by cost-reduction oriented innovation, has a negative effect on the profit rate. (2) Market openness measured by the value of import as a ratio to value-added production is found to have a negative impact. (3) Globalization of production measured by inward-FDI and outward-FDI as a ratio to total domestic fixed capital is found to have a positive impact on the profit rate. (4) Union density is found to have a statistically significant negative effect.
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