Among Threats and a “Perfect Excuse”: Understanding Change in Japanese Foreign Security Policy
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This article is written against the backdrop of widely discussed changes in Japanese foreign security policy in the 2000s*changes often attributed to an intensifying North Korea threat and growing rivalry with China. Employing Walt’s notion of ‘‘threat’’ (in effect, offensive power plus aggressive intentions), the thesis of this article is that China and North Korea could be construed as increasingly threatening to Japan. The antithesis is that changes in Japanese foreign security policy have rather taken place within the context of a public discourse that has increasingly framed China and North Korea as ‘‘threats.’’ The article demonstrates that, while Chinese military capability has burgeoned in the past decade, North Korea has experienced something like military stagnation. Moreover, although both actors have histories of foreign aggression, their respective official discourses lack aggressive intentions vis-a`-vis Japan. The article also demonstrates that while Japanese government sources have kept framing North Korea as a threat or a grave security concern, China has merely been depicted as ‘‘in need of further attention.’’ To understand these ambivalent results, the article introduces the synthesizing idea that a North Korean ‘‘threat’’ might serve as a ‘‘perfect excuse’’ for changing Japanese foreign security policy in the face of what could obviously be construed as a more pressing China threat.
Abstract
This article is written against the backdrop of widely discussed changes in Japanese foreign security policy in the 2000s*changes often attributed to an intensifying North Korea threat and growing rivalry with China. Employing Walt’s notion of ‘‘threat’’ (in effect, offensive power plus aggressive intentions), the thesis of this article is that China and North Korea could be construed as increasingly threatening to Japan. The antithesis is that changes in Japanese foreign security policy have rather taken place within the context of a public discourse that has increasingly framed China and North Korea as ‘‘threats.’’ The article demonstrates that, while Chinese military capability has burgeoned in the past decade, North Korea has experienced something like military stagnation. Moreover, although both actors have histories of foreign aggression, their respective official discourses lack aggressive intentions vis-a`-vis Japan. The article also demonstrates that while Japanese government sources have kept framing North Korea as a threat or a grave security concern, China has merely been depicted as ‘‘in need of further attention.’’ To understand these ambivalent results, the article introduces the synthesizing idea that a North Korean ‘‘threat’’ might serve as a ‘‘perfect excuse’’ for changing Japanese foreign security policy in the face of what could obviously be construed as a more pressing China threat.
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