Kim Jong Un Regime’s Nuclear-Missile Behavior and Kim Il Sung Memoir: A Strategic Culture Approach
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The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between changes in North Korea’s foreign policy stance and the citation frequencies of the previous generations’ discourse in the state–run media, based on the theoretical framework of strategic culture. As the methodologically most parsimonious and conspicuous means, this study selected Kim Il Sung’s memoir, With the Century, for the key text of the country’s strategic culture by referring to previous research; investigated Rodong Sinmun’s citation frequencies of the memoir; and derived a relation between the number of citations and the country’s annual nuclear and missile activities. Two variables’ Pearson correlation coefficient (r) was .88 during the second half of Kim Jong Un’s reign (2016–2020), allowing notable comparison with the coefficient of –.41 in the first half of the regime (2011–2015). The significant positive correlation suggests the possibility that Pyongyang has internalized a specific foreign policy perception frame since 2016, which includes maintaining a hanging-tough posture as a default from the previous generations, and entering into negotiations or dialogue defying the conventional wisdom. This logic may serve as a background element of resilience that makes the country return to the hardline attitude upon the occurrence of any slight change in situations.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between changes in North Korea’s foreign policy stance and the citation frequencies of the previous generations’ discourse in the state–run media, based on the theoretical framework of strategic culture. As the methodologically most parsimonious and conspicuous means, this study selected Kim Il Sung’s memoir, With the Century, for the key text of the country’s strategic culture by referring to previous research; investigated Rodong Sinmun’s citation frequencies of the memoir; and derived a relation between the number of citations and the country’s annual nuclear and missile activities. Two variables’ Pearson correlation coefficient (r) was .88 during the second half of Kim Jong Un’s reign (2016–2020), allowing notable comparison with the coefficient of –.41 in the first half of the regime (2011–2015). The significant positive correlation suggests the possibility that Pyongyang has internalized a specific foreign policy perception frame since 2016, which includes maintaining a hanging-tough posture as a default from the previous generations, and entering into negotiations or dialogue defying the conventional wisdom. This logic may serve as a background element of resilience that makes the country return to the hardline attitude upon the occurrence of any slight change in situations.
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