New Threat Perceptions, Domestic Political Changes and India’s Shifting Strategy toward the U.S.–China Rivalry
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The rise of the U.S.–China rivalry has posed an increasing strategic challenge for Asia’s middle powers, given that great power competition forced them to take sides between Washington and Beijing. While many countries are reluctant to reveal their strategic choices between the two major powers, India, under the Narendra Modi government, has shown a noticeable change in its approach toward the U.S.–China rivalry that requires a fresh evaluation. In this context, this article examines the recent changes in India’s strategic response to the U.S.–China competition. It argues that New Delhi’s changing threat perception of China from a collaboration partner to a security threat, combined with a domestic political change from a multiparty coalition government to a majoritarian government led by the right-wing party, has contributed to some crucial changes in India’s strategic choices. More specifically, new threat perceptions and domestic political changes have led India to lean toward the United States vis-à-vis China on various key geostrategic issues. This paper discusses several such issues to show how a majoritarian government led by Modi has taken a different approach toward the U.S.–China competition than the previous multiparty coalition government. To illustrate, the Modi government strengthened bilateral and multilateral strategic and defense ties with the United States to counter its China challenge. It also stands with the United States over the ongoing U.S.–China trade and technology war. On the other hand, the Modi government terminated the previous government’s constructive engagement policy toward Beijing by bringing new changes in India’s approach toward China, including strategic disengagement, soft confrontation, and economic decupling. This article concludes that India’s new strategy profoundly affects Asia’s geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape.
Abstract
The rise of the U.S.–China rivalry has posed an increasing strategic challenge for Asia’s middle powers, given that great power competition forced them to take sides between Washington and Beijing. While many countries are reluctant to reveal their strategic choices between the two major powers, India, under the Narendra Modi government, has shown a noticeable change in its approach toward the U.S.–China rivalry that requires a fresh evaluation. In this context, this article examines the recent changes in India’s strategic response to the U.S.–China competition. It argues that New Delhi’s changing threat perception of China from a collaboration partner to a security threat, combined with a domestic political change from a multiparty coalition government to a majoritarian government led by the right-wing party, has contributed to some crucial changes in India’s strategic choices. More specifically, new threat perceptions and domestic political changes have led India to lean toward the United States vis-à-vis China on various key geostrategic issues. This paper discusses several such issues to show how a majoritarian government led by Modi has taken a different approach toward the U.S.–China competition than the previous multiparty coalition government. To illustrate, the Modi government strengthened bilateral and multilateral strategic and defense ties with the United States to counter its China challenge. It also stands with the United States over the ongoing U.S.–China trade and technology war. On the other hand, the Modi government terminated the previous government’s constructive engagement policy toward Beijing by bringing new changes in India’s approach toward China, including strategic disengagement, soft confrontation, and economic decupling. This article concludes that India’s new strategy profoundly affects Asia’s geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape.
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