Bilateral Cyber Confidence Building Measures in Northeast Asia
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Under what conditions do countries form confidence building measures (CBMs) in the cyber domain? How do those conditions affect the frequency and type of cyber CBMs (CCBMs)? The extant literature surveys existing CCBMs, providing fragmented pictures of them at either the global, regional, or bilateral levels. Thus, there is a lack of systematically comparative perspectives between multiple efforts for states’ cyber confidence–building. This deficiency implies that little to no research has been dedicated to analytical examinations of the development of CCBMs. The present article offers a framework to assess the development and theoretical arguments to understand its underlying causes. It argues that the willingness of political leaders affected by the international strategic–security context is a necessary condition, in addition to the cost-benefit calculation of policymakers, affecting the frequency and type of CCBMs. To examine the arguments, the present article overviews the global development of the discussion of CCBMs at the UNGGE and OEWG. Then it presents the networks of CCBMs in Northeast Asia where the staunchest alliances as well as fierce strategic–security competitions have taken hold in the emergence of the new cyber domain. Lastly, the article investigates the processes of bilateral CCBMs formation in three dyads between the United States and each of three states, namely, Russia, China, and Japan. The empirical findings support the theoretical arguments.
Abstract
Under what conditions do countries form confidence building measures (CBMs) in the cyber domain? How do those conditions affect the frequency and type of cyber CBMs (CCBMs)? The extant literature surveys existing CCBMs, providing fragmented pictures of them at either the global, regional, or bilateral levels. Thus, there is a lack of systematically comparative perspectives between multiple efforts for states’ cyber confidence–building. This deficiency implies that little to no research has been dedicated to analytical examinations of the development of CCBMs. The present article offers a framework to assess the development and theoretical arguments to understand its underlying causes. It argues that the willingness of political leaders affected by the international strategic–security context is a necessary condition, in addition to the cost-benefit calculation of policymakers, affecting the frequency and type of CCBMs. To examine the arguments, the present article overviews the global development of the discussion of CCBMs at the UNGGE and OEWG. Then it presents the networks of CCBMs in Northeast Asia where the staunchest alliances as well as fierce strategic–security competitions have taken hold in the emergence of the new cyber domain. Lastly, the article investigates the processes of bilateral CCBMs formation in three dyads between the United States and each of three states, namely, Russia, China, and Japan. The empirical findings support the theoretical arguments.
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