Kim Yo-jong’s Strategic Rhetoric: A Semantic Network Analysis of North Korea’s Diplomatic and Strategic Communication
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This study examines how Kim Yo-jong’s official statements function as strategic instruments in North Korea’s statecraft, shaping foreign policy toward the United States and South Korea. By analyzing a corpus of 52 statements (March 2020– November 2024) through semantic network analysis, the research maps the cooccurrence of key terms to identify shifts in Pyongyang’s diplomatic rhetoric across different leadership contexts. The methodology combines quantitative text analysis—measuring term frequency, centrality, and clusters—with qualitative interpretation of political signals, offering a novel approach at the intersection of data analytics and security studies. The findings reveal distinct rhetorical phases corresponding to changes in the United States and South Korean administrations. During the Trump–Moon period, Kim Yo-jong’s discourse blended conciliatory overtures (emphasizing “peace,” “agreement,” and “dialogue”) with sharp warnings, reflecting a strategy of conditional engagement. In contrast, under the Biden–Yoon period, her statements converged into a predominantly adversarial narrative, emphasizing security threats, sanctions, and military deterrence. Notably, personalized references to U.S. leadership (e.g., mentions of President Trump) virtually disappeared, replaced by intense criticism of the Yoon government in Seoul—signaling a tactical pivot to target South Korea as the primary adversary when direct U.S. engagement waned. These rhetorical shifts underscore that Kim Yo-jong’s public statements are deliberate barometers of North Korea’s strategic priorities, aligning messaging with the regime’s evolving security concerns and diplomatic objectives. Consequently, this research highlights the value of monitoring North Korea’s official rhetoric as an early-warning tool for defense analysts and policymakers. Understanding the semantic patterns in Kim Yo-jong’s statements can inform more calibrated diplomatic and deterrence strategies by revealing Pyongyang’s shifting focus and red lines. Finally, by textually mining a total of 52 statements issued over the past five years, beginning with Kim Yo-jong’s initial remarks toward the end of Trump’s first term, this study aims to uncover security-related strategic insights into North Korea’s future policies toward South Korea and the United States.
Abstract
This study examines how Kim Yo-jong’s official statements function as strategic instruments in North Korea’s statecraft, shaping foreign policy toward the United States and South Korea. By analyzing a corpus of 52 statements (March 2020– November 2024) through semantic network analysis, the research maps the cooccurrence of key terms to identify shifts in Pyongyang’s diplomatic rhetoric across different leadership contexts. The methodology combines quantitative text analysis—measuring term frequency, centrality, and clusters—with qualitative interpretation of political signals, offering a novel approach at the intersection of data analytics and security studies. The findings reveal distinct rhetorical phases corresponding to changes in the United States and South Korean administrations. During the Trump–Moon period, Kim Yo-jong’s discourse blended conciliatory overtures (emphasizing “peace,” “agreement,” and “dialogue”) with sharp warnings, reflecting a strategy of conditional engagement. In contrast, under the Biden–Yoon period, her statements converged into a predominantly adversarial narrative, emphasizing security threats, sanctions, and military deterrence. Notably, personalized references to U.S. leadership (e.g., mentions of President Trump) virtually disappeared, replaced by intense criticism of the Yoon government in Seoul—signaling a tactical pivot to target South Korea as the primary adversary when direct U.S. engagement waned. These rhetorical shifts underscore that Kim Yo-jong’s public statements are deliberate barometers of North Korea’s strategic priorities, aligning messaging with the regime’s evolving security concerns and diplomatic objectives. Consequently, this research highlights the value of monitoring North Korea’s official rhetoric as an early-warning tool for defense analysts and policymakers. Understanding the semantic patterns in Kim Yo-jong’s statements can inform more calibrated diplomatic and deterrence strategies by revealing Pyongyang’s shifting focus and red lines. Finally, by textually mining a total of 52 statements issued over the past five years, beginning with Kim Yo-jong’s initial remarks toward the end of Trump’s first term, this study aims to uncover security-related strategic insights into North Korea’s future policies toward South Korea and the United States.