Evaluating a Potential China’s Naval Quarantine of Taiwan: Challenges, Vulnerabilities, and Implications
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Since the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022, China has intensified its military pressure on Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has increased its presence around the Taiwan Strait’s median line, and China has conducted multiple large-scale military exercises, such as Joint Sword 2023, Joint Sword 2024A, and Joint Sword 2024B. However, as demonstrated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict, despite China’s military ambitions, logistical challenges and technological advances in warfare could complicate a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Hence, several observers have speculated that these drills involving the PLA Navy and the Chinese Coast Guard in multiple operational zones are rehearsals for a de facto blockade of Taiwan. Nevertheless, the literature has rarely questioned whether such a strategy is truly low-cost and effective for China and has often assumed that a de facto blockade would be enforced. By contrast, the present study examined the challenges, vulnerabilities, and regional implications of such a de facto blockade strategy for China, addressing its feasibility in cross-strait competition. This study argues that a Chinese blockade would pose considerable economic, operational, political, military, and legal challenges and could rapidly escalate to war.
Abstract
Since the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022, China has intensified its military pressure on Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has increased its presence around the Taiwan Strait’s median line, and China has conducted multiple large-scale military exercises, such as Joint Sword 2023, Joint Sword 2024A, and Joint Sword 2024B. However, as demonstrated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict, despite China’s military ambitions, logistical challenges and technological advances in warfare could complicate a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Hence, several observers have speculated that these drills involving the PLA Navy and the Chinese Coast Guard in multiple operational zones are rehearsals for a de facto blockade of Taiwan. Nevertheless, the literature has rarely questioned whether such a strategy is truly low-cost and effective for China and has often assumed that a de facto blockade would be enforced. By contrast, the present study examined the challenges, vulnerabilities, and regional implications of such a de facto blockade strategy for China, addressing its feasibility in cross-strait competition. This study argues that a Chinese blockade would pose considerable economic, operational, political, military, and legal challenges and could rapidly escalate to war.