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From Confrontation to Conflict between China and Taiwan: Major Challenges for Taiwan’s Counter Strategy

윤준호|윤석준
한국국방연구원 (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses)|2020.09|The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis|제32권 제3호|pp. 351-370|DOI 10.22883/kjda.2020.32.3.002

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A2/ADnuclear weaponsU.S. Indo–Pacific strategymilitary capabilitiesChina military poweramphibious capabilitiesTaiwan securityTaiwan cardcyber warfare defenses

초록

This article explores the issue of Taiwan’s security, increasingly threatened by China’s overwhelming military power. Taiwan has long been protected by a security commitment from the United States, but recent geopolitical shifts and technological developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of Taiwan’s strategy. Operational concepts and tactics, such as Taiwan’s A2/AD defense against the PLA are severely challenged by China’s enhanced amphibious capabilities. Taiwan now looks vulnerable to a full-scale amphibious assault by the PLA, and the U.S. commitment has been undermined by the transactional emphasis of the current administration, with Taiwan seen primarily as a tool to contain Chinese expansionism rather than an end in and of itself. Clearly, the Taiwanese military needs to up its game, and this article makes four recommendations: First, Taiwan should significantly increase its independent military capabilities, forcing Chinese military planners to reconsider whether the military options against Taiwan are worthwhile. Second, Taiwan should deploy its substantial technological prowess to strengthen its cyber warfare defenses. Third, Taiwan should rapidly acquire advanced foreign-made weapons and systems, abandoning its costly and timeconsuming indigenous development policies. Fourth, Taiwan’s leaders should give serious consideration to developing nuclear weapons, as only this can deter the Chinese military threat in the long term.

Abstract

This article explores the issue of Taiwan’s security, increasingly threatened by China’s overwhelming military power. Taiwan has long been protected by a security commitment from the United States, but recent geopolitical shifts and technological developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of Taiwan’s strategy. Operational concepts and tactics, such as Taiwan’s A2/AD defense against the PLA are severely challenged by China’s enhanced amphibious capabilities. Taiwan now looks vulnerable to a full-scale amphibious assault by the PLA, and the U.S. commitment has been undermined by the transactional emphasis of the current administration, with Taiwan seen primarily as a tool to contain Chinese expansionism rather than an end in and of itself. Clearly, the Taiwanese military needs to up its game, and this article makes four recommendations: First, Taiwan should significantly increase its independent military capabilities, forcing Chinese military planners to reconsider whether the military options against Taiwan are worthwhile. Second, Taiwan should deploy its substantial technological prowess to strengthen its cyber warfare defenses. Third, Taiwan should rapidly acquire advanced foreign-made weapons and systems, abandoning its costly and timeconsuming indigenous development policies. Fourth, Taiwan’s leaders should give serious consideration to developing nuclear weapons, as only this can deter the Chinese military threat in the long term.

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