시스템리스크 감독의 금융감독상 제문제-감독기구의 의사결정 체계와 책임성 문제를 중심으로-
Supervisory issues of systemic risk regulation related to regulatory decision-making mode and its accountability system
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지난 글로벌 금융위기 이후 부각된 시스템리스크 감독의 주요 의사결정 과정에서, 최종대부자로서 금융위기의 확산을 막기 위해 주어진 모든 정책 자원을 활용했던 중앙은행의 영향력은 매우 심대하다. 그리고 중앙은행 특유의 의사결정 체계는 단순한 시스템리스크 감독을 넘어 전체 금융감독 구조에까지 영향을 미치고 있다. 고도의 거시계량 모델에 따른 합리적 의사결정 체계를 선호하는 중앙은행은 상대적으로 예측 가능성이 낮은 원칙중심의 감독보다 규칙중심의 감독과 함께, 사회·규범적 규칙 또는 ‘정의’라고 불리는 일반적·추상적 원칙이 아닌 수요와 공급 등 자연 과학적 합리성에 기초한 의사결정 체계를 선호한다. 따라서 투자계약 등 영업행위 감독에 대해서는 별개의 감독기구로 분리하는 대신, 바젤 시스템으로 대표되는 리스크에 따른 건전성 감독은 시스템리스크 및 거시감독이라는 이름으로 중앙은행의 독자적 관할권 또는 중앙은행 특유의 의사결정 체계로 편입하려는 유인이 존재한다. 하지만, 사전에 예상하지 못한 금융위기 발생시 시스템리스크 감독자에게 가장 필요한 것은 정교한 계량모형이나 오래 전에 마련된 규칙에 대한 엄격한 준수가 아닌, 신속한 위기 대응을 위한 감독자의 다양한 비상조치 결정에 대하여 여러 이해 관계자들로 하여금 이를 기꺼이 수용하게 만드는 감독자의 전문성에 대한 ‘신뢰’일 것이다.
Abstract
The influence of central bank that has utilized all given policy options to prevent a proliferation of the 2008 financial crisis is very deep and extensive, especially related to system risk regulation which has emerged after the recent global financial crisis as a new financial reform. Even further, the central bank’s unique decision-making mode is now affecting overall discussions about restructuring current regulatory structures in the name of systemic risk regulation and macroprudential supervision. In fact, the central bank may favor a rational decision-making mode based on more sophisticated econometric and quantifiable complex modeling system and rules-based regulation over principles-based regulation which has been regarded as less predictable and more discretionary. In addition, the central bank may prefer to choose a kind of risk-based decision-making mode based on scientific rationality compared to normative rules and general principles of economic justice which are very difficult to predict its results. Thus systemic risk regulation may be able to incentivize regulators to separate conduct-regulation from prudential-regulation, and relocate the conduct-regulation and supervision to another regulatory body that is different from central bank, while merging prudential-regulation into monetary policy jurisdiction which has yet been largely checked by onerous judicial review and administrative action. However, in the event of an unforeseen financial crisis, what is the most needed for systemic risk regulators is to ensure that stakeholders are fully aware of the necessity of extraordinary emergency measures the regulators have urgently requested, rather than trying to establish more complicated risk-assessing modeling systems or excusing a lack of appropriate data to calibrate. Indeed, ‘trust’ is the most crucial to make them get what they really need to contain devastating systemic risk.
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