거시경제 지표와 소비자기대심리와의 관계 분석
A Study on the Relationship of Macro Economy and Consumer’s Sentiment Index
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최근 들어 국민들의 행복감(happiness)이 어떻게 변화되어 왔으며, 그것의 결정요인이 무엇인가에 대하여 많은 관심이 부각되고 있다. 최근 연구논문들을 살펴보면, 미국과 영국에서 경기침체 등의 영향으로 국민들이 체감하는 행복감 수준이 정체하거나 줄어드는 것으로 보고된다. 미국의 경우 1970년대 이후 최근에 와서 여성들이 느끼는 행복감은 가장 큰 폭의 감소세를 보이고 있는 것으로 조사되고 있다. 이러한 행복감 상실의 가장 큰 주된 요인은 경기침체 등에 따른 실업률(unemployment)과 이혼 등에 따른 것으로 알려지고 있다. 본 연구는 거시경제 지표와 소비자기대심리간에 상호관련성이 존재하는지를 점검하고 관련성이 존재할 경우 그 방향과 크기를 규명하는 것을 연구 목표로 하였다. 본 연구에서 확인한 사항은 다음과 같다. 첫째, Granger 인과성 검정 결과, 소비자기대지수증감률은 산업생산증가율과 인과관계를 가지고 있으며, 남성 및 여성 소득증가율과는 상호 인과관계성(interactiveness)을 가지고 있음을 발견하였다. 둘째, VECM 모형을 사용한 총통화증가율과 남성소득증가율 충격에 대하여 소비자기대지수증감률이 7분기와 2분기까지에 걸쳐 정점을 이루고 이후 점차 안정을 찾아가는 것으로 분석되었다. 이에 따라 남성소득증가율과 같은 실물변수에 비하여 총통화증가율 충격에 따른 영향이 비교적 크고 길게 영향을 주게 됨을 알 수 있다 셋째, 그 밖의 요인에 대한 분산분해분석의 결과, 소비자기대지수증감률은 자기 변수이외에 정부지출증감률과 인플레이션율, 총통화증가율, 산업생산증가율, 남성소득증가율이 가장 큰 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다
Abstract
This paper explores the financial market and economics of welfare(such as well-being or happiness). It estimates econometric welfare equations. Reported levels of welfare have been related with consumer’s sentiment index through time in the Korea. Life satisfaction has run along financial market and economics in Korea. One thing that unites different kinds of researchers in financial market and economics is a concern to understand the power that affect welfare and wealth of people. What makes individuals of people happy? These are different questions, but they seem very important in Korea. One definition of welfare is the degree to which an individual’s subjective judges the overall quality of his or her life as favorable. Psychologists draw a distinction between the welfare from life as a whole and the welfare associated with a single area of life. These researchers view it as natural that a concept such as welfare should be part by asking people in Korea how they feel. One issue in the psychology literature in Korea has been whether a welfare measure is, in their terminology, reliable and valid. The previous paper mainly studies welfare in the United States and Great Britain. Reported levels of welfare have declined over the last quarter of a century in the US; life satisfaction has run approximately flat along to time in Great Britain. These findings are consistent with the Easterlin hypothesis about happiness. Easterlin debated about that economic growth does not bring happiness to a society. Our approach in this paper begin around his original article's views. Conclusionally, Reported levels of welfare have been related with consumer's sentiment index and industrial production, fiscal policy through time in the Korea. Welfare equations have a stable structure in this model.
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