거시경제 상태가 자본구조에 미치는 영향: 자본조달순서이론 관점으로

Abstract

Based on the evidence that macroeconomic conditions affect corporate cash flows (Hackbarth et al., 2006), this study attempts to incorporate macroeconomic conditions in testing the pecking order theory. We examine Korean stocks listed on the main board of the Korea Exchange. The pecking order theory explains corporate capital structures by differentiating internal funds from external funds. Therefore, its focus is placed on corporate cash flows. Accordingly, in order to test whether and how well the pecking order theory explains corporate capital structures, we should serioudly consider the possibility that macroeconomic conditions play an important role in explaining changes in the level of debt. Despite this expected importance of macroeconomic conditions, there is a dearth of empirical evidence linking macroeconomic conditions to empirical tests of the pecking order theory. This study tries to fill this gap in the literature. We test whether Korean firms shape their capital structures according to the pecking order theory, conditional on financial constraints and macroeconomic conditions. Based on the methodology adopted by Lemmon and Zender (2010), we set up an empirical model that incorporates macroeconomic conditions as an important indicator variable. Our results can be summarized as follows:First, we find that the capital structures of financially unconstrained Korean firms whose stocks are listed on the main board of the Korea Exchange tend to support the pecking order theory more than those listed firms under financial constraints. Compared to financially constrained firms, the firms that are not financially constrained exhibit a tendency to prefer internal funds over external funds in financing deficits. This evidence is consistent with the results reported in Lemmon and Zender (2010) in that firms with sufficient debt capacity follow the pecking order theory more closely than those with lower debt capacity. Second, under the pecking order theory, the better the macroeconomic conditions, the lower the changes in the level of debt. This result tends to be more prominent among unconstrained firms, although the statistical significance varies depending on what proxy we use in classifying financially constrained and unconstrained firms. There is weak evidence that unconstrained firms are more sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. These firms reduce debt financing when macro conditions are good because they have a better stream of cash inflows. This is consistent with the evidence of Korajczyk and Levy (2003) and Hackbarth et al. (2006), which demonstrates that macroeconomic conditions affect financially unconstrained firms more. Third, in good times, firms in financial deficit finance investments with debt issues first. We find evidence that, in good times, firms resort to equity financing only when they deplete their debt capacity completely. In conclusion, we find evidence that Korean firms’ financial behavior supports the pecking order theory in good times, especially for unconstrained firms, albeit statistical significance varies depending on how we classify firms as financially constrained vs unconstrained. Unique features of our study can be summarized as follows:First, to our knowledge, this study is the first empirical study that incorporates a variable reflecting macroeconomic conditions in testing the pecking order theory. Second, we execute empirical tests by employing more refined dependent and independent variables in our regressions. Specifically, we remove the increase in cash holdings from the definition of financial deficit because firms generally maintain some cash as a minimally required cushion to support ongoing operations. In addition, we add short-term debt to long-term debt in defining changes in the level of debt in order to reflect the observed practice of Korean firms that raise short-term external funds frequently.