최고경영자 교체가 경영성과에 미치는 영향

Abstract

There have been many studies under the subjects of the poor corporate performance as a major factor of CEO turnover, the earning management at the time of CEO turnover, and the stock market reaction to the announcement of CEO turnover. However, few researches seem to be found on the effect of CEO turnover on corporate performance in Korea. The purpose of this study is to analyse the effect of CEO turnover on the corporate performance in Korea. In other words, it is to analyse if CEO turnover leads to improving corporate performance in terms of an increase in corporate value and in accounting profit. The corporate performance in the stock market was measured by a total market value (CPV). The accounting performance was measured by the ratio of an operating income to total assets (ROA) and the ratio of a net income to total assets (ROE). Specially, unlike previous studies done by others, this study used the panel data analysis method to resolve the heterogeneity and the multi-collinearity problems. And 2 Stage Probit-MLE model was applied to control the endogeneity problem. This study is conducted using 401 samples of listed companies in the Korea Stock Exchange for the period of 10 years from 2001 to 2010. In this study, the independent variable is a dummy variable where it takes the value of 1 if there is CEO turnover and 0 if otherwise. The control variables are divided between the variables related with the ownership structure (the equity ratios of the largest shareholder, institutional investors and foreign investors) and the variables related with the corporate performances (the debt ratio, the ratio of sales growth, and the age of the corporation). And the empirical analysis is applied to the fixed effect model of a panel data analysis by testing of Hausman. The CEO turnover was analysed to be affected by the existence of endogeneity on the three factors of corporate performance variables (CPV, ROA, ROE). It suggested that if the three factors are not considering the endogeneity problem in analysing, it can draw a biased conclusion. The results of this study are as follows. First, the CEO turnover has a significantly positive relation to the total market value. It means that the CEO turnover leads to the increase in the value of stocks. Second, the CEO turnover has a negative effect on the accounting profits, which include the ratio of the operating income to total assets and the ration of the net income to total assets. Third, in the control variables related with ownership structure, the equity ratio of the largest shareholder has a significantly negative effect on the total market value. But the equity ratios of institutional investors and foreign investors are positively related with it. On the other hand, the accounting performance has a significantly positive coefficient with the ratios of institutional investors and foreign investors. But the equity ratio of the largest shareholder does not a significantly affect on the accounting performance. Fourth, the debt ratio is statistically less significant with coefficients for the total market value and the ratio of accounting profit. But the ratio of sales growth has a significantly positive effect on all the corporate performances. The age of the corporation seems to have a significantly positive effect on the total market value, but it has a negative effect on the accounting performance. Fifth, this study separately analysed the effect of CEO turnover on corporate performance with samples classified according to the size of the firm (small, middle, and large companies). As a results, the CEO turnover has a significantly positive effect on the market value and a negative effect on the accounting profit ratios in all types of companies. These results suggest that CEO turnover occurs in the year of a poor corporate performance and doesn't lead to improving an accounting performance at in the pertinent year. But it leads to the increase in the total market value due to the expectation that the corporate performance will improve in the following years. Meanwhile, the limitations of this study are as follows. First, the reason for CEO turnover, whether it is taken as a voluntary action or a disciplinary measure due to the low management performance, has a different effect on a corporate performances (Fan et al., 2007; Lee et al., 2009). But this study did not consider this point. Second, an effect of CEO turnover on corporate performance will vary according to the personal characteristics or the number of CEOs. Therefore, considering these variables might produce a more sophisticated results. Third, Virany and Tushman (1986) suggested that a growth trend of industry can affect the corporate performance associated with CEO turnover. Therefore, if we conduct the study on CEO turnover with the character of the industry considered, we can expect new research results.