실물옵션모형을 활용한 부동산 개발가치 평가에 관한 연구

Abstract

The Concept of Real Option Model is managerial flexibility in dealing with the uncertainties by having various options in place. Real options reasoning is a logic for funding the real estate development project that maximizes learning and access to upside opportunities while containing costs and downside risk. The Real Option Model cures the problem of the traditional DCF(Discount Cash Flow) in capital budgeting that is uncertain cash flow, there is an opportunity to delay, expand or abandon the project. The fact that the vale of Real Option Model can be measured provides useful insight regarding not only to the investors, to the appraiser but also to the investment policy makers. In this paper I applied the Black -Scholes Model and Binomial Lattice Model to the valuation of the expansion and deferral call option. And I applied Real Option Model which examines the empirical prediction of Real Option Model to the valuation of Real Estate Development. I empirically tested the Real Option Model(Black -Scholes Model, Binomial Lattice Model) to find out whether it is reasonable or not. The results from this case. I concluded that the Real Option Model is very useful for evaluating the valuation of Real Estate Development.