거시경제변수와 종합부동산세가 아파트 매매가격에 미치는 영향 연구

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the comprehensive real estate tax on apartment sales prices in Seoul. The results of the analysis show that the continuation of low interest rates since the 2000s has had a positive effect on the apartment sales prices due to an increase in the money supply in the market. Additionally, the increase in apartment sales transaction volume is acting as a direct cause of driving the apartment sales price. Moreover, the increase in the comprehensive real estate tax is included in the apartment sales price, indicating that the government's regulatory policy can have an adverse effect. However, in a stable economic situation, empirical analysis has shown that the influence of macroeconomic variables such as the consumer price index and interest rates is insignificant. Therefore, the main reason for the additional apartment sales price is the increase in transaction volume. In light of these findings, a sharp increase in the comprehensive real estate tax, which is a holding tax, requires a cautious approach as it can exacerbate the transaction cliff that can occur in the future when the real estate market declines and lead to the government's distrust. As comprehensive real estate tax data for 2022 was not available for this study, during which there were rapid interest rate fluctuations, it was not possible to derive analysis results for the current situation. Additional data analysis is therefore needed to inform policy proposals.