서울 아파트 경매시장에 영향을 미치는 거시적 경제요인에 관한 연구

Abstract

This Study aims to establish the apartment auction sales price percentage determination model, deduct variables that determine apartment auction sales prices, and analyze the effects. since the imput variables of the apartment auction sales price percentage determination model that has been established in this study have time sequential fluctuations, VECM, which is typically used for the factor analysis of multiple time series data, was utilized. The implications of the study are as follows: First, the expansion of the new apartment distribution market becomes the factor that lowers the apartment auction sales price percentage, and it should be considered as an important factor when making investment decisions for the real estate auction market. Second, the forecasting of the increase in the consumer price should become the object of basis and consideration for logical investment decision making. Third, the incresase of auction items raises the apartment auction sales price percentage, so the forecasting of interest rates should become the object of basis and consideration for logical investment decision making. Finally, it isexpected that if the gross domestic product increases, the movement of capital into the apartment auction market, which can hedge inflation, will accelerate and vitalize the auction.