Current Scenario of Economic Convergence in Africa: Empirical Evidence from Disaggregated Panel Data
1
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Most studies on African countries have found no evidence of convergence in the continent to catch‐up with high income rich countries. However, most of those studies have employed an aggregate data which makes it difficult to reveal the true outcome. Based on this fact, this paper attempts to re‐examine the issue of convergence and economic growth in Africa by disaggregating the data into a panel of 19 low‐income and 19 middle‐income African economies from 1985 to 2009. The robustness of the results is carefully analyzed by employing a SURE and a 3SLS panel growth regression with instruments. Once capital formation, human capital, macroeconomic stability, openness, and physical infrastructure, population growth and political stability are controlled for, there has been evidence of conditional convergence for middle‐income African economies at the rate of about 3.4 percent per five‐year span. This fact is further supported by the recent successes of about 7 low income African economies that have already joined the club of lower‐middle income economies very recently. This implies that not all African nations' growth and convergence is gloomy as always portrayed in various international Medias and forums, though there is still a long way to catch‐up with higher income economies. However, the study found no evidence of economic convergence for most of the low‐income African countries and these may be mainly attributed to various structural problems related to policy choices, commitments, quality of economic and political institutions as well as social capability, which includes human capital and infrastructure.
Abstract
Most studies on African countries have found no evidence of convergence in the continent to catch‐up with high income rich countries. However, most of those studies have employed an aggregate data which makes it difficult to reveal the true outcome. Based on this fact, this paper attempts to re‐examine the issue of convergence and economic growth in Africa by disaggregating the data into a panel of 19 low‐income and 19 middle‐income African economies from 1985 to 2009. The robustness of the results is carefully analyzed by employing a SURE and a 3SLS panel growth regression with instruments. Once capital formation, human capital, macroeconomic stability, openness, and physical infrastructure, population growth and political stability are controlled for, there has been evidence of conditional convergence for middle‐income African economies at the rate of about 3.4 percent per five‐year span. This fact is further supported by the recent successes of about 7 low income African economies that have already joined the club of lower‐middle income economies very recently. This implies that not all African nations' growth and convergence is gloomy as always portrayed in various international Medias and forums, though there is still a long way to catch‐up with higher income economies. However, the study found no evidence of economic convergence for most of the low‐income African countries and these may be mainly attributed to various structural problems related to policy choices, commitments, quality of economic and political institutions as well as social capability, which includes human capital and infrastructure.
참고문헌 (43)
- Baltagi, B., "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data" (2005), John Wiley & Sons Ltd
- Barro, R., "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross‐Country Empirical Study" (1997), MIT Press
- Barro, R., "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80(106), pp.407~443 (1991)
- Barro, R., "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications", Oxford Economic Papers, 53(3), pp.541~563 (2001)
- Barro, R., "Convergence across States and Regions", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 22, pp.107~182 (1991)
- Barro, R., "Economic Growth" (2004), MIT Press
- Baumol, W., "Convergence of Productivity: Cross National Studies and Historical Evidence" (1994), Oxford University Press
- Becker, G. S., "Population and Economic Growth", American Economic Review, 89(2), pp.145~149 (1999)
- Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?, "Blomstrom, M.", Center for Policy Research, ~, pp.CEPR Discussion Paper 870 (1993)
- The Social Rate of Return to Infrastructure Investments, "Canning, D.", The World Bank, ~, pp.Policy Research Working Paper No 2390 (2000)
- Collier, P., "Greed and Grievance in Civil War", Oxford Economic Papers, 56(4), pp.563~595 (2004)
- Davidson, R., "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics" (1993), Oxford University Press
- Dollar D., "Growth is Good for the Poor", Journal of Economic Growth, 7(3), pp.195~225 (2002)
- Elbadawi, I., "Social Cohesion, Conflict Management and Economic Growth in Africa, In Globalization, Democracy, and Development in Africa: Challenges and Prospects" (2001), African Books Collectives
- Fagerberg, J., "Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates", Journal of Economic Literature, 32(3), pp.1147~1175 (1994)
- Fischer, S., "The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth", Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), pp.485~512 (1993)
- Fogel, R., "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of long‐term Process on the Making of Economic Policy", American Economic Review, 84(3), pp.369~395 (1994)
- Folster, S., "Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries", European Economic Review, 45(8), pp.1501~1520 (2001)
- Gujarati, D., "Basic Econometrics" (2003), McGraw‐Hill Companies, Inc
- Gylfason, T., "Natural Resources, Education, and Economic Development", European Economic Review, 45(4-6), pp.847~859 (2001)
- Ito, T., "the Japanese Economy" (2001), MIT Press
- Jones, C. I., "Introduction to Economic Growth" (1998), W. W. Norton & Company Ltd
- Lall, S., "Technological Capabilities and Industrialization", World Development Report, 20(2), pp.165~186 (1992)
- Lewis, A., "the Theory of Economic Growth" (1955), Allen and Unwin
- Lucas, R., "On the Mechanics of Economic Development", Journal of Monetary Economics, 2(1), pp.3~42 (1988)
- Mankiw, G., "Macroeconomics" (2003), Worth Publishers
- Mankiw, G., "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), pp.407~437 (1992)
- Mkandawire, T., "Our Continent, Our Future: African Perspectives on Structural Adjustment" (1999), Africa World Press, Inc
- Foreign Aid, Resources, and Export Diversification in Africa: A New Test of Existing Theories, "Osakwe, P.", Economic Commission for Africa, ~, pp.African Trade Policy Paper 61 (2007)
- Romer, P., "Increasing Returns and long run Growth", Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), pp.1002~1037 (1986)
- Rostow, W., "The Stages of Economic Growth" (1960), Cambridge University Press
- Sachs, J., "The Curse of Natural Resources", European Economic Review, 45(4-6), pp.827~838 (2001)
- Sachs, J., "Ending Africa’s Poverty Traps", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (1), pp.117~240 (2004)
- Savedoff, W., "Earnings and the Elusive Dividends of Health, In Wealth from Health: Linking Social Investments to Earnings in Latin America" (2000), Inter‐American Development Bank
- Sen, A., "Mortality as an Indicator of Economic Success and Failure", Economic Journal, 108(446), pp.1~25 (1988)
- Solow, R., "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(10), pp.65~94 (1956)
- Stiglitz, J., "Aid for Trade", Paper presented at the annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics (2006)
- Summers, R., "Penn World Table Version 6.2", University of Pennsylvania: Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices, ~ (2006)
- Swan, T., "Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation", Economic Record, 32, pp.334~361 (1956)
- Thirlwall, A., "Trade, the Balance of Payments and Exchange Rate policy in Developing Countries" (2003), Edward Elgar
- Wood, A., "Africa’s Export Structure in a Comparative Perspective", Cambridge Journal of Economics, 25(3), pp.369~394 (1998)
- Wooldridge, J., "Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach" (2006), South‐Western College Publishing
- Zellner, A., "An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations and Tests for Aggregation Bias", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57(298), pp.348~368 (1962)