해외원조 흡수역량에 따른 사하라이남 국가들의 분류
Taxonomy of Sub-Saharan African countries based on the absorptive capabilities of foreign aid
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본 연구는 해외원조가 효과를 거두기 위해서 반드시 갖추어야 할 수원국의 흡수역량(absorptive capabilities)에 따라 사하라이남 아프리카 국가들을 분류하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 흡수역량은 제도, 인적자본, 인프라, 거시경제환경, 지식축적 활동의 5개 분야로 나누어 살펴보았으며, 각 분야별로 세부지표를 선정하였다. 이러한 세부지표 값을 평균하여 각 분야의 점수를 구한 뒤, 군집분석 방법을 활용하여 국가를 4개 그룹으로 분류하였다. 첫 번째는 “종합흡수능력 上그룹”으로서, 5개 분야가 평균 이상이면서 골고루 발달되어 있는 국가들이다. 두 번째는 “종합흡수능력 中上그룹”으로서, 5개 분야가 골고루 발달되어 있지는 않지만 2~4개 분야의 역량이 평균보다 높은 국가들이다. 세 번째는 “종합흡수능력 中下그룹”으로서, 1~3개 분야가 골고루 발달되어 있지는 않지만 2~4개 분야의 역량이 평균보다 높은 국가들이다. 마지막은 “종합흡수능력下 그룹”으로서, 5개 분야의 값이 평균에도 미치지 못하는 값을 보여 흡수역량이 매우 떨어지는 국가라고 볼 수 있다. 결과적으로 군집분석을 통해 국가들이 각 그룹으로 분류되었으며, 그 결과에 따라 수원국과 공여국에 대한 시사점이 도출되었다. 즉, 해외원조의 효과성을 높이기 위해 수원국 입장에서는 흡수역량을 향상시켜야 하고, 공여국은 흡수역량이 높은 국가들에 대한 지원을 우선 고려해 볼 수 있다는 것이다. 특히 공여국 측면에서는 우리나라와 같이 원조의 규모가 작은 국가들이 전략적인 ‘선택과 집중’을 해야 하는 경우 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다.
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to categorize Sub-Saharan African countries based on their absorptive capabilities, which is necessary for foreign aids to be effective. Absorptive capabilities are divided into five fields such as institutions, human capital, infrastructure, macroeconomic environment, and knowledge-accumulating activities, each of which is again composed of several indicators. Countries are categorized into four groups via cluster analysis by employing the average values of each field as variables. As a result, four clusters are identified and their characteristics are as follows. The first one is the “high comprehensive absorptive capability” group, where five fields are evenly well developed. The second one is the “medium high comprehensive absorptive capability” group, where countries’ average values are more than the averages of all countries in 2-4 fields. The third one is the “medium low comprehensive absorptive capability” group, where countries’ average values are more than the averages of all countries in 1-3 fields. The final one is the “low comprehensive absorptive capability” group, where countries average values are more than the averages of all countries in no fields. Based on these results, implications for recipient and donor countries have been drawn. That is, recipient countries which lag behind others should enhance absorptive capabilities to improve the effectiveness of ODA; and donor countries should first consider those countries with high absorptive capabilities for offering aids. In particular, the results can be usefully employed by the countries with little amount of ODA (e.g. Korea) that need to strategically select and focus on target countries.
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